As we described eleven weeks ago, many of you have reacted to our warnings and advice in the Weekly Commentary by moving some money out of the stock market.  You now have the challenge of timing your entry back into the market. 

Also, eleven weeks ago we described five signals we have identified to give us an idea when to start moving money back into the market.  Here is an update on what those 5 signals are telling us about investing in the long term asset allocation model: 

There has been improvement in only one of the signals.  And, the signal that monitors real estate values shows continued deterioration.  The real economy continues to suffer - the length and severity of this suffering is still unknown.  Unemployment is a growing problem.

But, the stock market has the capability of temporarily overlooking negative news and rebound even during a long term bear market.  Both the optimism surrounding President-elect Obama coupled with the short-term solution to the auto industry bailout will probably provide the basis for this short term move.  During the next 3 weeks the stock market could overlook the negatives in our 3 signals and move higher.

However, we recommend that you do not return to your long term asset allocation model until our 5 signals show improvement.  This is the tenth weekly report on them: 

1. The U.S. housing market – here we will track the Case-Shiller Index.  UPDATE:  Data through October 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller  Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007.

2. Foreign money buying up healthy small and regional banks. No activity noted this week.

3. LIBOR – London Interbank Offered Rate – this is the interest rate that bank offer to lend unsecured funds to other banks.  Higher rates indicate stress in the banking system. SOME IMPROVEMENT NOTED HERE LAST WEEK WHICH INDICATES THE FINANCIAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO MEND.

4. The California economy – California, in many respects, has spear-headed the U.S. into this mess and will probably lead us out of it.  And, California is a microcosm of the U.S. because it contains everything from agriculture to technology to tourism.  No improvement noted this week.

5. A technical indicator – a reliable buy signal is when the 50 day moving average (of the S&P 500 Index) moves above the 200 day moving average. No improvement noted in the 50 day or 200 day moving average trend lines this week.