The Big Picture
I STILL REMAIN SKEPTICAL of the forecasts coming out of Wall Street and Washington DC. It’s important to keep in mind these forecasts, in many cases, come from the same “experts” whose forecasts lead us into this mess to begin with. And some of the forecasts turn out to be notoriously wrong, especially those that attempt to forecast more than 1 year in the future. For example: The Federal Reserve issued its first ever 3-year forecast of unemployment rates on 11/20/07 (i.e., for the 3-years 2008-09-10). At that time, the Fed projected that the national unemployment rate in the USA would range from 4.8% to 4.9% during calendar year 2009. The unemployment rate in the country is currently 9.5% (source: Department of Labor, Federal Reserve)


Comments