The Numbers This Week
BATTERED BY POST-FOURTH OF JULY BLUES, U.S. markets opened the week on a down note and, despite occasional bursts higher, ended the week the same way, with all three major indexes closing Friday down on the five trading days.
"What I am seeing is the dominance of doubt," says one Wall Street chief investment strategist. "It reminds me of 1982. Then, as now, we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression. There were problems with toxic bad debt, oil prices and soaring unemployment. There was a feeling then that things could never be the same."
Back then, stocks did pop for about 45 days, much the same as this year. But then they went sideways for several months, and that could happen again, the chief investment strategist says. "We need time to recover."
Right now the mood is decidedly grim. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped for its fourth week running, closing down 134, or 1.7%, at 8147. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 41, or 2.3%, to 1,756.
The big problem is that the economy continues to signal trauma. Crude-oil prices tumbled 10% on the week, to less than $60, on concern that a prolonged global recession will sap demand for energy.
The other drag on the market: worries about the second-quarter earnings season. Expectations aren't high, with the market figuring that profits at the S&P 500 companies will show a drop averaging 34%. More important is just what the reporting companies say about the outlook for the rest of '09. Next week will bring reports from the likes of Google (ticker: GOOG), Baxter International (BAX), Citigroup (C) and several other major banks.
"Everything depends on earnings," says a Philadelphia based chief investment officer. "Now, investors want more — they want 'good' rather than 'not bad.' "(Source: Barrons Online).
"What I am seeing is the dominance of doubt," says one Wall Street chief investment strategist. "It reminds me of 1982. Then, as now, we were in the worst recession since the Great Depression. There were problems with toxic bad debt, oil prices and soaring unemployment. There was a feeling then that things could never be the same."
Back then, stocks did pop for about 45 days, much the same as this year. But then they went sideways for several months, and that could happen again, the chief investment strategist says. "We need time to recover."
Right now the mood is decidedly grim. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped for its fourth week running, closing down 134, or 1.7%, at 8147. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 41, or 2.3%, to 1,756.
The big problem is that the economy continues to signal trauma. Crude-oil prices tumbled 10% on the week, to less than $60, on concern that a prolonged global recession will sap demand for energy.
The other drag on the market: worries about the second-quarter earnings season. Expectations aren't high, with the market figuring that profits at the S&P 500 companies will show a drop averaging 34%. More important is just what the reporting companies say about the outlook for the rest of '09. Next week will bring reports from the likes of Google (ticker: GOOG), Baxter International (BAX), Citigroup (C) and several other major banks.
"Everything depends on earnings," says a Philadelphia based chief investment officer. "Now, investors want more — they want 'good' rather than 'not bad.' "(Source: Barrons Online).
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