The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. We identified 4 initiatives on which the U.S. stock market is speculating to be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration. What will happen next? TBD
The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. I consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.
Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:
- Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
- Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
- Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED BUT A BILL IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH CONGRESS. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 15%
- Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. ROLL BACKS HAVE CONTINUED AND SEVERAL TRUMP NOMINEES HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 15%
As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.
We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.