VNFA NEWS

We welcome Lorin Ross to the VNFA Team! Lorin joined us in the full-time position of Finance Associate. She has seven years of experience in operational and technical accounting.

Lorin will work out of VNFA’s Bethlehem headquarters as part of the internal finance and accounting department under the supervision of Elizabeth Wilson, CPA who has been promoted to Chief Financial Officer. She will manage all aspects of wealth management fee billing and commissions, as well as help maintain accurate and reliable financial records.   Lorin has a Master of Business Administration in Accounting from St. Josephs College and has spent the last three years working as a Senior Accountant in Long Island, NY.

Lorin is also a certified Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) and has a Property & Casualty Insurance license. “I’m very excited about joining Valley National and I look forward to using my skills and background to help VNFA grow,” she said. Lorin loves spending time with her family. She lives with her husband of eight years and her seven-year-old daughter, as well as four dogs and some chickens.

Special Announcement

A fresh look for valleynationalgroup.com!
We have been working with a talented team at Weidenhammer to update our website, and we are pleased to be unveiling the new valleynationalgroup.com this week. We can’t wait to hear what you think about the refresh.

The Markets This Week

by Connor Darrell CFA, Assistant Vice President – Head of Investments
Global equity markets retreated from their previous highs last week as evidence emerged that the new coronavirus continued to spread outside of mainland China. About a dozen Chinese cities, including Wuhan at the center of the outbreak, are on lockdown as China’s Lunar New Year celebrations begin. Many public celebrations have been canceled and travel restrictions have been imposed during what is one of China’s busiest holiday seasons. Markets are reflecting concerns over the potential impacts of the virus on the global economy, and we have begun to observe a rotation out of risk assets such as stocks and toward the relative safety of fixed income investments. As a result of this rotation, yields moved lower across most of the yield curve last week, generating positive returns for bonds.

The true economic impact of the coronavirus will not be measurable until after the outbreak has been contained, but many have looked to the SARS outbreak of late 2002 and 2003 for a point of reference. A report issued in 2004 estimated that the SARS outbreak cost the world economy over $40 billion dollars, but the overall market impact proved to be somewhat limited. The major risk to markets at this point in time still stems from the “fear factor” that the new virus is creating, which may ultimately pose a risk to consumer spending and travel expenditures. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the virus has an unusually long incubation period of up to two weeks, which makes it likely that current reports are underestimating the number of infected people. However, it is important to note that even if the disease continues to spread, its impacts may still be significantly lower than that of the seasonal flu, which kills an estimated 50,000 people every year. The heightened level of concern surrounding the new coronavirus is likely at least in part due to the simple fact that it is new and foreign. It is human nature for us to have a heightened sense of fear of something that we do not understand and are unfamiliar with.

We have adjusted our assessment of “geopolitical risks” in our heat map to a negative at this point in time to reflect the heightened concerns surrounding the novel virus, but do not believe that the effects will be long-lasting. We will continue to monitor the disease’s impact on the global economy and markets moving forward and will provide additional updates in future commentary.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac

U.S. ECONOMIC HEAT MAP
The health of the U.S. economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

VERY POSITIVE

The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion and we have seen little to suggest that this cannot continue.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

Corporate earnings growth was weak throughout 2019 as a result of slowing in the global economy and trade policy uncertainty. However, analysts are expecting mid to high single digit earnings growth in 2020, which will be important to sustaining recent levels of equity returns.

EMPLOYMENT

VERY POSITIVE

December’s headline jobs growth number of 145,000 missed consensus expectations, though the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.5%; a 50-year low. Despite the softer than anticipated results in December 2019 was an incredibly strong year for the labor market, and it remains the healthiest area of the economy.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 lowered the effective tax rates for many individuals and corporations. We view the cuts as a tailwind for economic activity over the next several years.

MONETARY POLICY

POSITIVE

With the Federal Reserve expected to refrain from any further adjustments to interest rates without a material change in the economic outlook, it is unlikely that changes in Fed Policy will disrupt the economic cycle in the near future. Furthermore, the low absolute level of interest rates remains a positive for markets.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEGATIVE

We have adjusted our assessment of Geopolitical Risks to NEGATIVE as a result of the continued spread of the coronavirus outside of mainland China. The virus poses a threat to economic growth consumer spending in affected regions as a result of the “fear factor” it induces.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

Due to low inflation and weak economic activity, central banks around the world remain in a very accommodative stance. We have seen some recent evidence of modest recovery in places like Germany, but we expect global economic growth to remain modest overall.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

Quote of the Week

“Patience is power. Patience is not an absence of action; rather it is ‘timing’ it waits on the right time to act, for the right principles and in the right way.” – Fulton J. Sheen

VNFA NEWS

We are pleased to announce the promotion of Elizabeth Wilson, CPA to the position of Chief Financial Officer.

Elizabeth joined the company as Corporate Controller in 2014, and was most recently Vice President, Finance & Tax Services. As part of the executive management team at VNFA, she oversees firm-wide financial operations as well as strategic and risk management, in addition to serving as Head of Tax Services.

VNFA Executive Management Team (left to right): Judianne Harris CMO, Matthew Petrozelli CEO, Elizabeth Wilson CFO

Elizabeth is a Certified Public Accountant with more than 15 years of experience in accounting and management. A graduate of Muhlenberg College in Allentown with a B.A. in Accounting and Business Administration, Elizabeth moved back to the Lehigh Valley from New York City to join the VNFA team. She was recognized in 2018 by the PICPA (Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants) with the Young Leader Award; and in 2019 was named the Lehigh Valley Business CFO of the Year Rising Star.

The Markets This Week

by Connor Darrell CFA, Assistant Vice President – Head of Investments
Global equities continued to ride the wave of momentum created by the agreement of a “Phase One” trade deal between the U.S. and China and extended their advance into record territory. President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He finally signed on the dotted line last week, officially stamping the first bit of tangible trade progress to date. The agreement mandates that China increase its imports from the United States by approximately $200 billion and decreases U.S.-enacted tariffs on Chinese goods. Progress has also been made with respect to intellectual property protections and the opening of Chinese financial markets, but much work remains to be done on these two key areas of contention, leaving the door open for additional headline risks and setting the stage for a drawn out negotiating process that could extend beyond Donald Trump’s first term as president. Substantial U.S. tariffs will continue to remain in place as the negotiations continue, but markets have clearly looked positively upon the progress that has been made thus far.

In the bond market, yields remained largely unchanged throughout the week as investors continued to favor risk-assets such as equities. With the Federal Reserve on what is expected to be an extended pause with respect to rate changes, there has been little new to report in terms of monetary policy of late. However, in comments last week, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan became the first Fed official to explicitly acknowledge that recent actions by the Fed to inject liquidity into the financial system may have led to an increase in investor risk-taking. He warned that the central bank should be cognizant of its impact on risk appetite in financial markets moving forward as it considers future policy changes. Kaplan’s comments echo the sentiment of many market “bears” who have argued that equity market valuations have become stretched as a result of elevated levels of enthusiasm among investors. 

Did You Know…?

by Christopher Popp, CPA, MST
The IRS has launched a new and improved Tax Withholding Estimator which can be found here https://www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator. The new estimator incorporates the changes from the redesigned Form W-4. The IRS urges everyone to see if they need to adjust their withholding by using the Tax Withholding Estimator to perform a Paycheck Checkup. If an adjustment is needed, the Tax Withholding Estimator gives specific recommendations on how to fill out their employer’s online Form W-4 or provides the PDF form with key parts filled out.

Beginning in 2020, income tax withholding is no longer based on an employee’s marital status and withholding allowances, tied to the value of the personal exemption. Instead, income tax withholding is generally based on the worker’s expected filing status and standard deduction for the year. In addition, workers can choose to have itemized deductions, the Child Tax Credit and other tax benefits reflected in their withholding for the year.

The estimator allows users to choose the refund amount they prefer from a range of different refund amounts to help workers more effectively adjust their withholding. The exact refund range displayed is customized based on the tax information entered by that user. Based on the refund amount selected, the Tax Withholding Estimator will give the worker specific recommendations on how to fill out their W-4. This new option allows users who seek either larger refunds at the end of the year or more money on their paychecks throughout the year to have just the right amount withheld to meet their preference.

The new Tax Withholding Estimator also features numerous other enhancements, including one allowing someone who expects to receive a bonus to indicate whether tax will be withheld. Other improvements added, include mobile-friendly design, handling of pension income, Social Security benefits and self-employment tax.