Did You Know…?

The CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act
There is and will continue to be a lot of information available about the details of this 800+ page bill that was signed into law on March 27th. As your trusted team, we are analyzing how any relief items in the bill may apply to our individual clients and their financial planning moving forward. Here is a quick list of the most asked topics so far. Consult your advisor to learn more.

Individual Recovery Payments
The eligibility for and amount of payments being given to individuals is based on Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) reported on the latest tax return on file with the IRS – 2019 if that return has been filed, if not your 2018 AGI will be used. The one-time payments will be given based on the following thresholds: Married Filing Joint: $150,000; Head of Household: $112,500; All Other Filers: $75,000.

Required Minimum Distributions Waived
For 2020, all RMDs are suspended, including those for inherited IRAs as well as traditional IRAs of those over age 70½. For RMDs already taken in 2020, you have up to 60 days to return a distribution to an IRA or deposit it in another qualified retirement account.

Penalty for Early Retirement Distributions Waived
The 10% penalty for taking early distributions from qualified retirement plans, including IRAs and 401(k)s, is waived. The waiver applies to distributions taken between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020. Up to $100,000 of distributions can avoid the penalty.

Retirement Plan Loan Rules Modified
For those impacted by coronavirus allowed loan amounts are doubled to $100,000. The modifications include an increase to allow use of up to 100% of the vested balance, and loan payment may be deferred up to one year.

For individuals with Federal student loans, payments may be deferred until September 30, 2020. For small businesses, including self-employed, the CARES Act includes payroll tax deferrals in addition other available credits, loans and assistance.

Here are some of our top picks for articles to help you understand the basics of the CARES Act.

FORBES – The CARES Act Has Passed: Here Are The Highlights

NPR – What’s Inside The Senate’s $2 Trillion Coronavirus Aid Package 
         –
READ: $2 Trillion Coronavirus Relief Bill
(includes a searchable widget of the entire bill)

INDUSTRY BLOG (Michael Kitces.com) –
Analyzing the CARES Act: From Rebate Checks To Small Business Relief For The Coronavirus Pandemic  

The Markets This Week

by Connor Darrell CFA, Assistant Vice President – Head of Investment
Last week brought another series of large swings in equity markets as investors had to balance the still uncertain (though expectedly profound) impacts of government quarantining efforts relating to COVID-19 with historically strong economic policy responses. Markets managed to push meaningfully off of their lows, largely buoyed by optimism surrounding economic policy support. On Monday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would uncap the amount of capital it could pump into financial markets and established other means of providing liquidity to the system. This aggressive action was followed just days later with the passage of a $2.2 trillion fiscal response (known as the CARES Act) aimed at providing aid to troubled workers and businesses. Also hidden in the week’s news flow was a massive increase in claims for unemployment benefits, which skyrocketed to 3.3 million, smashing the previous record of 695,000. Additional data revealed that euro zone and Japanese manufacturing was in the midst of a sharp contraction. We expect the economic data to continue to worsen before getting better but remind investors that much of the negative data likely to come is already expected by markets, which are forward-looking by nature. 

Behavioral Finance: A Primer
Much of our previous communication has been focused on providing our interpretation of the data related to the pandemic, as well as frequent reminders of the importance of discipline. But for many investors who are facing an unprecedented amount of volatility in markets, remaining disciplined is much easier said than done.  As human beings, our brains are wired to address risks and evaluate decisions in certain ways, and in many instances, the mechanics of our cognitive functions can lead us to make investment decisions that may prove to be contrary to our best financial interests. 

Interestingly, there is an entire field of finance that is devoted to studying the psychology of investing. Advancements in our understanding of the human decision-making process have provided practitioners of “Behavioral Finance” with lots to offer in terms of understanding the behavior of investors. In our view, one of the most important benefits of understanding behavioral finance is that we can use our understanding of our own psychology to help improve our investment decision making. Below, we provide a summary of some of the most significant psychological pitfalls and how they may negatively impact us over the long-term:

1. Loss Aversion

All investors hate losing money, but the concept of loss aversion goes beyond this simple notion and suggests that human beings’ aversion to paper losses can greatly impact investment decisions. Specifically, study after study has shown that the “pain” associated with losing money on an investment is more powerful than the “pleasure” derived from earning it. In the midst of a volatile market, this can cause us to feel the urge to take action in an effort to protect ourselves from realizing further losses, even if such action would not be in concert with our long-term investment objectives. In order to combat this desire, it is essential for us to focus on our goals and objectives in an effort to focus on the things we have direct control of over time. This might include making temporary adjustments to our savings and consumption rates or taking advantage of cost-saving opportunities such as lower interest rates, rather than making drastic adjustments to our portfolios.

2. Confirmation Bias

Another flaw in the way we digest information is confirmation bias. Confirmation bias occurs when we inadvertently place higher emphasis on data or information that supports what we already believe, rather than taking it into consideration at face value. For example, if we believe strongly in the resiliency of the U.S. economy, we may overemphasize positive information about U.S. stocks and discount whatever negative views we may encounter that do not support this belief.  For many of us, this bias may lead to us rushing to sell positions that have underperformed on a relative basis and flock to those that have performed better. Giving in to these types of biases can cause us to sacrifice proper diversification in our portfolios at the precise time that diversification takes on heightened importance.

3. Herding

Herding is the behavior that leads to our desire to “follow the crowd.”  This is often driven by fear of regret or of “missing out” (also known as FOMO). Throughout history, there are a plethora of examples of points in time where market sentiment reached levels that were far too extreme (this includes periods that fall in both bull and bear markets). In these instances, those who were able to refrain from following the popular decision (whether that be to buy more when stocks were expensive, or to sell when markets were in peril) have often come out ahead. Given the volatility we are experiencing now, it is important for us to take a step back and develop our own conclusions rather than simply following the trend.

4. Illusion of Control

Illusion of control bias is a bias in which people tend to believe that they can control or influence outcomes when, in fact, they cannot. One example of this bias in a practical study occurred when a social experiment conducted in the 1980’s found that people permitted to select their own numbers in a hypothetical lottery game were willing to pay a higher price per ticket than subjects gambling on randomly assigned numbers. The belief that we have more control than we really do on the outcome of our investment returns can lead us to take inappropriate action within our portfolios. To combat this, it is important to think of investing as a probabilistic activity, and that the probability of different outcomes is beyond our control. During periods of market stress, it can be easy to lose sight of the fact that long-term returns are driven largely by circumstances beyond our control, and that the probability of experiencing positive returns increases with an investor’s time horizon.

5. Representativeness

Representativeness is a type of selective memory that causes us to place too much weight on recent evidence rather than taking a more holistic approach to decision making. This can cause investors to focus too much on short-term performance without considering the evidence that may be found in the more distant past. With markets having fallen so quickly from their highs, there are likely to be many high-quality stocks out there which still have very promising long-term prospects but may have fallen considerably off of their previous prices. If we become too concentrated on the recent past, or even on the fact that these businesses may operate in industries that could be particularly troubled in the current environment (i.e., energy or consumer discretionary), we may be more likely to lose sight of the business’ strengths. All of the above biases are particularly important to consider in the current investing climate, because they can lead us to make suboptimal decisions during a time of stress. Behavioral economists have found that we can help to reduce the negative impacts that our cognitive biases may have on our decision-making process just by simply acknowledging that they exist. This can help us to remain more objective and less emotional when considering what (if anything) should be done to adjust our portfolios in this time of uncertainty.

VNFA FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions (during COVID-19 office closure)

How to I reach my Financial Advisor and support team?
The best way to reach your Financial Advisor or a Support Staff member is via e-mail while they are working remotely from their individual home offices.  However, you can call our main phone at 610-868-9000 and leave a voice mail message.  All voice mail messages are converted to recordings and immediately sent via email to the recipient.  Please leave a detailed message, including the best number to return the call, and someone from your team will get back to you as soon as possible. If you don’t know the direct e-mail or phone number you are trying to reach, you can send us a note at FromOurTeam@valleynationalgroup.com and your message will be routed to the appropriate person on your behalf.

What is the status of my tax return?
Our team will continue to work on tax preparation over the next couple of months with the new July 15 deadline in mind. If your return is in process and you wish to check the status, e-mail us at tax@valleynationalgroup.com.

If you still need to get us your documents, please upload digital copies to your secure eVault Client Portal. If you need to set up a personal portal, please contact us and your service team will help you. If you are unable to submit documents digitally, please hold them at home – do not mail to us. If you already have documents on the way, we have made arrangements to procure that mail for safe keeping until we can revisit normal physical operations.

How do I get paper documents/checks to VNFA if you’re closed?
Currently, VNFA is receiving all regular and overnight mail deliveries. However, due to a possible lag in delivery time, it is better to send documents electronically (ideally via your secure eVault Client Portal – alternatively by fax and e-mail for documents that do not contain sensitive personal data).

We encourage you to use electronic transfers such as an existing moneylink, but checks can be received via regular or overnight mail delivery. If you are unsure of the best method in your particular situation, please give us a call so that we can guide you to a solution.

Will normal business hours continue or be adjusted?
Our team will continue to be at your service Monday through Friday from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m., as usual. Please understand that there may be a slight delay in the delivery and return of your messages as working remotely with our team and our service providers sometimes requires a few extra steps to ensure clarity and security.

Where do I find the latest news and insights available from VNFA in between The Weekly Commentary e-mails?
We have established a special landing page to collect our resources related to our clients’ interests and needs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The page is available from the banner on our home page or directly at valleynationalgroup.com/COVID-19-resources If you have a question or a specific topic you would like us to address, please submit your inquiry to us at FromOurTeam@valleynationalgroup.com.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEGATIVE

The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion, and remains in a strong position. However, we have further reduced our grade to NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEGATIVE

Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

We have downgraded our employment grade another level as we expect the next few weeks will reveal significant job losses due to the suspension of economic activity in the services industry to combat the spread of COVID-19.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.

FISCAL POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

The CARES Act provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is by far the largest fiscal stimulus package ever passed, and we anticipate the possibility of additional support once we emerge on the other side of the “curve”.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic remains a near-term issue at this time.

ECONOMIC RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

As discussed in our commentary, COVID-19 represents a real threat to economic activity globally. However, we do expect that the eventual economic recovery will occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

“Your Financial Choices”

“Your Financial Choices” may not be live this week, but you can still submit questions online any time at yourfinancialchoices.com/contact-laurie/

Laurie will be collecting questions to address at a future date – stay tuned for more information in April.

Live episodes of “Your Financial Choices” are postponed until further notice as Laurie and her guests are working from home in response to guidance around the COVID-19 pandemic.

WDIY will continue to broadcast prerecorded local shows as well as available NPR programming. Please continue to support local radio!

Recordings of past shows are available to listen or download at both yourfinancialchoices.com and wdiy.org.

The show normally airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.

Special Market Note: Update on COVID-19

by Connor Darrell CFA, Assistant Vice President – Head of Investments “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” (Vladimir Lenin)

It may seem counter to open a discussion about financial markets with a quote from a communist leader, but we felt the above was a perfect summary of what market participants have experienced recently (and last week in particular). In this iteration of The Weekly Commentary, we aim to put some of the volatility in context, describe what we view to be a much needed and potentially historic economic policy response, and hopefully address some of the concerns many investors have in this uncertain environment.

Situation Report
In just a few weeks, the COVID-19 pandemic has completely transformed the global economy and caused a massive re-pricing of risk across virtually all markets and asset classes. The uncertainty of the situation is in many ways unprecedented. The world has not faced a pandemic of this magnitude in over 100 years, and the economic costs of government attempts to slow the spread of the virus are likely to be immense. As a result, investors are understandably scared, but the types of market movements we have observed in the past few weeks only occur when panic and fear become the primary determinants of price, rather than fundamentals. The problem for markets is that the fundamentals are very uncertain at this point in time, and it is unlikely that this uncertainty will dissipate for the next several weeks.

With that as a backdrop, it is entirely plausible that markets fall further before finding a bottom. Investors should prepare themselves for poor economic data (particularly with respect to the labor market) and the continued increase in the number of cases to spark further volatility in the weeks ahead. Importantly, the slew of bad news we are likely to see in the coming weeks makes it all the more essential for investors to remain grounded to the core principles of investing discipline. These principles include employing a disciplined rebalancing strategy, maintaining a properly diversified portfolio, keeping focused on the long-term, and avoiding making emotional decisions. As much as it can feel otherwise when we are going through them, bear markets are temporary events. Pandemics are temporary events as well, and we expect that the economy will emerge on the other side without having suffered major damage to productive capacity, which is something that cannot be said for all economic shocks throughout history.

The Policy Response
In our view, this challenge will require a coordinated and targeted response using both fiscal and monetary policy tools. We are looking for (and expect) an historic response to this global crisis from policymakers. We have already seen the Federal Reserve step in to address the first key issue, which is a lack of liquidity in the financial system. Through open market operations which involve buying bonds from those looking to sell them (also known as Quantitative Easing), the Federal Reserve has committed an enormous amount of capital to provide and ensure stability in markets. We anticipate that these policies should provide some relief in the weeks ahead and continue to rate the monetary policy environment as “Very Positive” in our economic heat map. 

There has also been heavy focus on congress as investors have clamored for a fiscal response to the crisis, and we remain optimistic that differences will be worked out and that a bill (possibly more than one) will be passed. The initial task for policymakers is to provide relief to those who need it while quarantines remain in place and the spread of the virus runs its course. This will likely take several weeks. During this time, fiscal policies should be targeted at expanding the social safety net (through increased unemployment benefits and paid family leave) as well as providing bridge loans for cash-strapped businesses unable to operate with society at a standstill. Once the rate of contagion has begun to turn downward (which is likely several weeks away), we then expect the passage of a more traditional stimulus package aimed at spurring economic demand.

Balancing Near-Term Gratification with Missed Opportunity Over the Long-Term
All of this is rather complex, but the crux of the matter is that while the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic are not likely to subside in the near-term, the eventual return to economic activity is likely to be aided by historically powerful fiscal and monetary forces. All of this suggests that it will be exceptionally difficult to time the bottom, and investors who exited risk assets during the worst of the crisis are unlikely to be able to re-enter the market at the right time. If markets continue to slide lower before finding a bottom, those same investors may experience a period of gratification in the near-term as a result of having avoided additional losses, but are just as likely to have made themselves worse off in the long-term as a result of missed opportunities for healthy returns on the back end. In short, maintaining discipline and managing emotions is key. At this point in time, it is safe for investors to approach the current environment as the start of a new economic cycle. This new cycle will bring with it its own set of characteristics and opportunities. Perhaps value stocks will finally regain market leadership? Maybe international equities will once again find their footing relative to domestic stocks? How can I construct my portfolio to maximize my opportunity to achieve my long-term financial goals? The first two questions speak to the concept of diversification. We simply do not know which types of stocks will lead the way in the next cycle (though valuation can provide us with some clues), so a balanced approach is needed. With respect to the third question, bond yields currently stand at historically low levels, making it exceptionally unlikely that goals can be achieved without exposure to equities in a portfolio. All of these questions may seem trifling in the face of a near-term global crisis but are exactly the types of issues that long-term investors should be focused on, because these are the things that ultimately determine investment success over a full-time horizon.

Message from the CEO – March 20, 2020

Please read this entire message as it contains important details about our client services. The accompanying video is a brief overview of the two most important items included below.

By order of Governor Wolf our physical office locations are closed and our entire team will continue business operations and client service remotely. Our team can be reached via e-mail, or by voicemail through our main phone number at 610-868-9000. We will receive an e-mail with the recording of your message and respond to you as soon as possible during our normal business hours – Monday through Friday, 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.

The IRS has extended the tax filing and payment deadlines to July 15, 2020. This gives us more time to help you complete and submit your Federal, State and Local tax returns. This extension also covers normally associated interest and penalties, such as the failure-to-pay penalty as well as 2020 first quarter estimated payments (including payments of tax on self-employment income).

Prior-year (2019) IRA contributions are normally due by the tax filing deadline, which is now July 15. While our offices our closed, we recommend that you submit any of these types of payments via electronic transfer and refrain from sending us checks in the mail.

Our team will continue to work on tax preparation over the next couple of months with the new deadline in mind. If you still need to get us your documents, please upload digital copies to your secure eVault Client Portal. If you need to set up a personal portal, please contact us and your service team will help you. If you are unable to submit documents digitally, please hold them at home – do not mail to us. If you already have documents on the way, we have made arrangements to procure that mail for safe keeping until we can revisit normal physical operations.

Our team is prepared to handle all of our services for clients using secure and tested remote technology. We do not anticipate any business interruptions and we are very pleased that we will be able to continue to provide the same level of service that we have for the past 35 years.

On behalf of our entire VNFA family, I hope that you and your family remain safe and healthy during this challenging time. We are here for you – as always – should you need us.

Sincerely,
Matt Petrozelli
President and CEO
Valley National Financial Advisors

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion and remains in a strong position. However, we have further reduced our grade to NEUTRAL as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

We have downgraded our employment grade another level as we expect the next few weeks will reveal significant job losses due to the suspension of economic activity in the services industry to combat the spread of COVID-19. However, we still view the potential for permanent job losses as a result of the pandemic as very low.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

We anticipate a significant fiscal response to the COVID-19 outbreak and expect that the government will make a concerted effort to provide economic relief to industries and families who are most impacted by the economic fallout of the pandemic.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic remains a near-term issue at this time.

ECONOMIC RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

As discussed in our commentary, COVID-19 represents a real threat to economic activity globally. However, we do expect that the eventual economic recovery will occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.