The economy continues to give us mixed signals. Here is a succinct list of what happened last week:
Positives
1) Ireland getting bank bailout, fire put out for now
2) China, Hong Kong and South Korea all take steps to battle rising inflation
3) Philly Fed report on economic activity much better than expected and at best level since Dec ’09
4) Initial Unemployment Claims fall below 440k for 2nd straight week
5) US Retail Sales show upside surprise
6) Germany Nov ZEW (indicator of economic sentiment) unexpectedly rises
7) From contrarian view, bulls in AAII (American Assn of Individual Investors) fall to 40 from 57.6 which was highest since Jan ’07
Negatives
1) China, Hong Kong and South Korea all take steps to slow things down
2) Multi-family housing “starts” to fall sharply
3) NY report on manufacturing activity much weaker than expected (but 6 mo outlook rises)
4) Interest rates move higher, average 30 yr mortgage rate at 2 mo high
5) Mortgage Refi’s fall 17%, purchases down 5%
6) Municipal bonds come under pressure