The economy continues to give us mixed signals – here is a succinct list of what happened last week:

Positives:
1) Irish bailout helps to calm markets by week’s end
2) Spain and Portugal successfully sell debt, also calming nerves
3) Trichet remains patient, says no to peer pressure, doesn’t further blur line between monetary and fiscal policy
4) Chinese mfr’g indices rise to 7 mo high
5) Taiwan and South Korea PMI’s both rise
6) Thailand raises rates to face inflation
7) ISM services and mfr’g indices hold steady
8) Pending Home Sales show big upside
9) ABC confidence at 7 week high

Negatives:
1) Payrolls well below estimates and unemployment rate at 7 mo high
2) Mortgage rates continue higher, refi’s fall 22%
3) S&P/Case Shiller show softer home prices
4) Gasoline prices highest since May
5) Asia continues rate hikes

Source: The Big Picture

Americans may understandably feel that they need scorecards to keep track of the changes required by health-care reform that could affect them. It’s true that the most far-reaching of the new law’s rules do not go into effect until 2014. That’s when individuals will be mandated to obtain health insurance or pay penalties, and when insurers will no longer be able to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions or to charge them higher premiums.

But 77 rules either have already been implemented or will be before 2014, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Health Reform timeline. Most of these are the responsibilities of insurance companies and government agencies. In late September, for instance, insurers were required to begin providing dependent coverage for adult children until they turn 26 and were prohibited from placing a cap on lifetime benefits.

Similarly, Medicare will soon implement several health-care reform changes that will affect most retirees. In 2011, preventive tests will be fully covered with no cost sharing, and brand-name drugs will be discounted by 50% for those who reach the Part D coverage gap known as the doughnut hole. Also, retirees earning more than $85,000 a year ($170,000 for couples) will pay higher Part D premiums for the first time.

2010
Individuals: Pre-existing condition insurance plan (PCIP). People who have been without insurance for six months or longer may qualify for this coverage. With $5 billion in federal subsidies, PCIP policies are expected to be the lowest-cost alternatives for those who are eligible. To qualify, individuals must provide proof (such as a letter) that they have been denied coverage because of pre-existing conditions. Even if they have been offered insurance, they are considered denied if the policy won’t cover their pre-existing conditions.

PCIP plans are available in all 50 states and their benefits are federally mandated—out-of-pocket limits, for instance, cannot be more than those for health savings accounts. And premiums are to be the same as they would be for a standard population, with adjustments for age limited to four times the rate for the youngest policyholders.

In addition to the PCIP plans created by health-care reform, 34 states have their own high-risk pool plans. These state plans, most of which have been in existence for several years, will continue to operate alongside the PCIP plans. The rules for these state-sponsored plans vary widely—many, for example, do not require the individual to have been uninsured for six months. In 2014, policyholders in both PCIPs and the state-sponsored plans will be transitioned to coverage through the state-based exchanges. Information about PCIP benefits and premiums in different states is available at www.healthcare.gov/law/provisions/preexisting.

Small Businesses: Tax credits. Health-care reform takes several steps to encourage small businesses to offer health insurance to their workers. Probably the most important of these is a tax credit that starts with the 2010 tax year and that may be available to companies with fewer than 25 full-time workers. Among the criteria: The average wage for all company employees must be less than $50,000, and the employer must pay at least one-half of the workers’ premiums.

The amount of the tax credit is based on a sliding scale: Firms with fewer than 10 employees and an average wage under $25,000 will get the maximum credit, which equals 35% of the employer’s contribution to workers’ premiums. And in 2014, this top bracket will increase to 50%. For companies with more than 10 (but fewer than 25) employees, the size of the credit is smaller, and in some cases is zero. Finally, businesses can use this credit for no more than six years (and can use the 50% credit for only two years).

Early retiree reinsurance program. Since its start in June, more than 2,000 companies have been approved for this program, which subsidizes employers’ coverage for retirees ages 55-64 who are not eligible for Medicare. Although businesses of all sizes can apply, it’s expected that mostly small businesses will participate because relatively few of them offer health coverage to early retirees.

Under the rules, the government will reimburse businesses for 80% of retiree claims that fall between $15,000 and $90,000. Employers can then use that money to reduce premiums and other health-care costs. The program is scheduled to last until 2014, but many believe that its $5 billion funding will be exhausted within two years.

2011
Individuals: Health savings accounts, health reimbursement accounts and flexible spending accounts. Health-care reform made two short-term tweaks to these tax-advantaged health accounts, both of which become effective in 2011. First, money from HSAs, HRAs and FSAs can no longer be used to buy over-the-counter drugs unless they are prescribed by a physician.

The other change applies only to health savings accounts, where the penalty for using HSA funds for non-medical expenses before age 65 will double from 10% to 20% (for Archer Medical Savings Accounts, the penalty goes from 15% to 20%). The 2011 amounts for HSA contributions, minimum deductibles and maximum out-of-pocket limits are the same as in 2010.

Small Businesses: W-2 reporting. Beginning with the 2011 tax year, employers will be required to show on Form W-2 the total cost of employer-provided health insurance. Initially this provision is for information only. Then in 2018 insurers will pay an excise tax on so-called Cadillac plans—those whose total cost as shown on the W-2 exceeds a certain threshold. The tax will apply only to the portion of the cost that exceeds the threshold.

SIMPLE cafeteria safe harbor. Companies with fewer than 100 employees may take advantage of a health-care reform provision that allows them to establish cafeteria (Section 125) plans for workers without complying with Section 125’s strict nondiscrimination rules. The new law does this by establishing a safe harbor with rules that are easier to comply with and that reduce administrative costs; moreover, companies can use the safe harbor until their number of employees reaches 200.

Wellness grants. Companies with fewer than 100 employees can qualify for $200 million in grants over a five-year period if they start wellness programs. To be eligible, businesses cannot have had wellness programs in existence as of March 23, 2010 (the date that the health-care reform act was signed into law), but can apply for funds if they started (or will start) such programs after that date. The grants are to be focused on specific needs—nutrition, smoking cessation, physical fitness and stress management (Source: Financial Advisor magazine).

SO, OUR FUTURE ISN’T WHAT IT used to be, but that hasn’t stopped traders from eagerly looking ahead. Stocks kicked off this month with a 3.7% three-day pop that already has some breathlessly hailing December as the new January, and which handily wiped out November’s 0.2% correction, itself just the first loss in three months. Instead of taking it easy, money managers are raring to go, perhaps because quite a few are lagging behind the market after its latest spirited spurt.

The early trickle of 2011 forecasts from Wall Street firms dutifully lists the roster of risks—fiscal constraints, rising commodity costs, the fading high from the central bank’s money-printing spree, Europe’s debt bill, China’s constricting credit and tension in Korea. But no one is calling for calamity, and the consensus seems to expect the artificial swell of money and benign interest rates to goose corporate profits while the economy plods along.

Even Friday’s jobs report, which showed just 39,000 new workers hired in November, failed to thwart the market or rattle payroll stocks from Automatic Data Processing (ticker: ADP) to Paychex (PAYX). Protracted unemployment will merely goad our government to extend its policy largesse, and while we may lament the fiscal wantonness, we’re not betting against its impact in the stock market— just yet. An extension of the Bush tax cuts or monetary stimuli from Europe can further hurt those betting against the market.

Meanwhile, those who have jobs and who’ve paid down some debt are shopping. November retail sales were better than expected, consumer confidence recently ticked to a five-month high, and vehicle sales exceeded an annualized 12 million each of the past two months. Despite sluggish growth, “pent-up demand by businesses, along with plenty of cash and low interest rates, provide fuel for growth,” says a well known chief market strategist. Improving profit margins also helped companies report better-than-expected profits for seven straight quarters, and Deutsche Bank chief strategist Binky Chadha argues that margins haven’t peaked yet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 291, or 2.6%, to finish last week at 11,382. The Standard & Poor’s 500 is a point from reclaiming its 2010 peak. The Nasdaq Composite Index tacked on 57, or 2.2%, to 2591, while the Russell 2000 racked up its fourth gain in five weeks to jump 24, or 3.2%, to 756. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose above 3%, the highest since July, while crude oil climbed to a 26-month peak above $89.

Today, the cost of money has never been lower, corporate bond yields have never been lower, and company balance sheets have never been stronger, notes Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. For example, nonfinancial Standard & Poor’s 500 companies hold more than $1 trillion in cash, roughly 10% of the market’s capitalization.

Goldman expects stock buybacks to increase 25% in 2011, dividends to grow 11% and companies to plow $240 billion in cash toward mergers. The firm’s economists see the global economy growing 4.6% next year, while abundant liquidity holds the 10-year yield to 3.25% by late next year. Against this benign backdrop, Kostin is penciling in profit growth of 12% in 2011 and sees the S&P 500 pushing 1450 in a year.

With Wall Street so bullish, it isn’t surprising to find professionals’ buying powder depleting. Of course, cash as a percentage of stock mutual funds’ assets decline as their stock portfolios rally, but “we are currently as fully invested as we were at the 2000 and 2007 peaks,” notes Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research.

So the question remains whether indifferent individual investors will regain their appetite for stocks in 2011. They have yanked money from U.S. stock mutual funds nearly every week this fall even as the market rallied. Will rising stock prices and Wall Street’s enthusiasm change their mind? (Source: Barrons Online)

The Weekly Commentary is in an abbreviated format this week.  I spent lots of time with family during the last week.  Our house is the Thanksgiving gathering spot for my wife Jo Anne’s family as well as my own.  And, I am out of town on Monday, November 29 taking care of a fever.  You hunters know the remedy for this sickness.  I will let you know if I am successful in its treatment.

GO LEHIGH!  Beat Delaware. 

What a big win for the Brown & White.  And, for the Patriot League, too. The Mountain Hawks know how to play “D”.

I have your attention, right?  Wow, a 2011 forecast!  Not so fast.  Before I attempt to guess about the future, let me first warn you that we are entering the time of the year for pundits to make apparently irrefutable forecasts of their view  of 2011. But, be wary of such forecasts.  Why?  Because stuff happens.  Unexpectedly.  As a result, forecasters utterly misread outcomes.  For example, who could have forecast a volcanic eruption in 2010 that played havoc with air travel in Europe, the Greece/Ireland crisis, the tragic floods in Pakistan, the earthquake in Haiti, the massive oil spill in the gulf.  These were some of the biggest events of 2010, and each left its mark on the year 2011 both economically and psychologically. 

 

“Winning is a habit. Watch your thoughts, they become your beliefs. Watch your beliefs, they become your words. Watch your words, they become your actions. Watch your actions, they become your habits. Watch your habits, they become your character.”

Vince Lombardi as repeated 11-24-10 by Iron Mike Ditka during his LifePath Luncheon speech at the Holiday Inn Conference Center Lehigh Valley. 

VIOLENCE AND FEAR OF FINANCIAL crises abroad cast a shadow on trading at home last week, but it wasn’t long enough to depress the U.S. market severely.

North Korea’s deadly attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong—170 rounds in all—seemed nothing short of an act of war, though propagandists for the North’s dictator, Kim Jong Il, thought it best to release a photo of him surveying bottles of soy sauce. Police in Rio de Janeiro battled shantytown gangs, which might have made more headlines in a week without the Thanksgiving holiday. At center stage was Ireland’s sovereign-debt bailout of roughly 85 billion euros (U.S. $113 billion), and fears that Portugal and Spain will be next.

The euro dropped 3% on the week, to $1.32, though that’s nowhere near the low of $1.19 it reached earlier this year when the currency’s future was being called into question.

U.S. market indexes mostly slumped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1% to 11,092 for the four trading sessions, with Friday’s put to bed after a half-day. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.9% to 1189.40. But the Nasdaq Composite showed signs of life, rising 0.7% to 2534.56, as did the components of the Russell 2000 index, which gained 1.2%.

Financial stocks posted the biggest decline for the week as investors shied away from risky assets. Oil and gas shares also didn’t do well, though oil prices rose nearly 3% for the week to more than $86 per barrel. Natural gas prices shot up 5.6% to nearly $4.40 per million British thermal units.

“The reason the stock market didn’t fall more this past week is that there is a perception that while these are large problems, it’s likely European officials will expand their bailout facilities, and the ECB will come in and buy some of these government securities to stabilize the market,” said Ed Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research based in Brookville, N.Y. “Clearly the bond vigilantes have gone from getting riled up about Ireland to now focusing on Portugal and Spain, and the question is if European authorities can re-establish some order in the capital markets.”

The European Commission suggested doubling the size of Europe’s €440 billion bailout fund, an idea promptly dismissed by Germany. Eurozone members are likely to push for some kind of rescue package in Portugal to restore market confidence and preempt further instability, according to Eurasia Group analysts. In Spain, the government insists it can slash deficits, though its rising bond yields last week underscored fear about unemployment and low productivity (Source: Barrons Online).