Despite a recent mauling by Christina Aguilera, America’s message is still loud and clear: Our Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied in 11 of the past 12 weeks. Our Standard & Poor’s 500 has doubled off its intraday low from March 2009 in roughly 709 days, the quickest doubling since 1936. Lately, our stock market only goes up. We’re No. 1!
Contrast this with those also-rans called emerging markets, which may have faster economic growth but less-doting central banks. Since early November, the SPDR S&P 500 (ticker: SPY) has shimmied up 10%, but the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) is down 5% and the iShares China Index Fund (FXI) is off 10%. Our central bank is printing money; theirs aren’t. Is it any wonder that investors are pulling money from emerging-market stock funds for a fourth straight week—the longest streak since October 2008, says EPFR Global—and have already yanked more than a fifth of the $95 billion they plowed last year into emerging markets?
The love fest with U.S. stocks wasn’t interrupted by Iranian war ships sailing through the Suez Canal, or the more treacherous gulf that is yawning between spending and revenue in the president’s proposed 2012 budget. We didn’t even flinch when Sports Illustrated plopped the Russian Irina Shayk on the cover of its swimsuit issue, defying market lore that says U.S. stocks fare better in years with homegrown gals on display. Talk about a signal—we’ve even devised an ETF for smartphones (ticker: FONE) to herd the throngs lunging at this momentarily hot segment.
How can we top all that? The February survey of global money managers by BofA Merrill Lynch already shows heavy tilting toward stocks and commodities, with risk appetite at its highest level since January 2006, and hedge funds’ exposure at the highest since July 2007. Meanwhile, exposure to emerging markets collapsed from 43% to 5%, the lowest level since March 2009, while cash balances shrank to just 3.5%.
No one expects the U.S. market’s levitation to continue forever, but who wants to pull out early? The consensus seems to think that every dip should be bought, and the game has turned into one of guessing when this surreal melt-up might end.
The flight from emerging markets, however, should turn well before that. Emerging markets become laggards when global growth flops, and that’s hardly the case today. “Earnings remain solid and there are reasons to expect they will improve relative to developed markets,” even as relative valuations approach their lowest level since 2008, notes Robert Buckland, Citigroup’s global strategist. “The pullback provides an opportunity to buy, in our view.”
Stateside, the Dow rallied for a third straight week, adding 118, or 1%, to 12,391. The S&P 500 is up 98.5% since closing at 676.53 on March 9, 2009. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 25, or 0.9%, to 2834, while the Russell 2000 jumped 13, or 1.6%, to 835 (Source: Barrons Online).