SOLAR ENERGY may be the answer to our energy needs in a shorter time period than you think. Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil projects solar energy will be able to meet all the world’s energy needs 16 years from now.

Kurzweil cites the dramatic improvement curve of nanotechnology used in solar panels, and predicts it will take “eight doublings” of the technology to meet energy demand through solar. Kurzweil’s central thesis has long been that development curves of technology are an evolutionary process. Through a positive feedback loop, improvements are made that constantly raise the rate of progress, leading to a kind of hyper-exponential rate of improvement. Thus, the pace of change is always greater than it appears to mere mortals, by Kurzweil’s line of thought.

“Solar panels are coming down dramatically in cost per watt,” Kurzweil said. “And as a result of that, the total amount of solar energy is growing, not linearly, but exponentially. It’s doubling every 2 years and has been for 20 years. And again, it’s a very smooth curve.”

“Winners are losers who got up and gave it one more try.”

– Dennis DeYoung

QUESTION: What happens IF?

ANSWER: Over the past week we’ve seen a massive earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The risk of radiation and conditions that are not yet under control at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant have forced sudden unexpected evacuations there.

We have recently seen large-scale evacuations of expatriates from Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and it is not unreasonable to assume that we might see a similar exodus from Bahrain and Yemen if developments in those countries deteriorate. So, it’s prudent to address the topic of personal contingency planning. The subject of your own personal contingency plan is readily applicable to crises caused by natural disaster, war and civil unrest, or terrorist attack. When a crisis erupts, having an established personal contingency plan provides people with a head start and a set of tools that can help them avoid, or at least mitigate, the effects of the chaos and panic that accompany crisis events. Click here for more details.

Feel free to contact me if you or someone you know has this type of situation. Financial Planning and tax planning advice presented here is general in nature, and individual circumstances make applying these general rules tricky; thus, the above answer cannot be applied to all circumstances because the slightest variation could cause a different outcome.

My once-a-year cheeseburger & French fries binge is complete. On St. Patrick’s Day Thursday I and a support group of 13, descended upon Emeril’s Burgers & More for that special order. The verdict: the cheeseburger graded at a 9.9 on a 10 point “delicious” scale but the fries came in at a disappointing 6 (not crisp enough).

Last week, more NEGATIVE than POSITIVE developments were announced and the stock market continued to be volatile.

Below is a succinct list of last week’s events:

Positives:
1) Bilateral intervention halts yen spike.
2) China and India continue to tighten policy to offset rising commodity prices.
3) Philly Fed survey best since ’84 and NY also good but old news?
4) Housing starts awful, but I say good with too many existing homes for sale.
5) Europe agrees to expand EFSF and gives Greece more rope. Spain sells 10 and 30 yr paper successfully.

Negatives:
1) Japan cannot stabilize damaged reactors but hope is alive that they’re getting close.
2) Commodity inflation still elevated as CRB back to flat on week on rebuilding bets and Libya/Bahrain unrest after mid week selloff.
3) CPI, PPI and Import Prices rise above forecasts.
4) Will China and India engineer a soft landing with more policy tightening?
5) Housing starts awful, bad for construction.
6) Europe will learn hard way that more debt on too much debt won’t end well, Moody’s downgrades Portugal to in line with S&P.

Source: The Big Picture

When a crisis erupts, having an established personal contingency plan provides people with a head start and a set of tools that can help them avoid, or at least mitigate, the effects of the chaos and panic that accompany crisis events. Here are several books from STRATFOR, a highly regarded source of intelligence:
 
• How to Live in a Dangerous World: A STRATFOR Guide to Protecting Yourself, Your Family and Your Business
• How to Look for Trouble: A STRATFOR Guide to Protective Intelligence

A review of the following external links is an excellent investment of your time:

• Ready.gov
• U.S. Bureau of Consular Affairs
• U.S. Overseas Security Advisory Council

Note: By clicking on these links, you will be leaving TheWeeklyCommentary.com and entering a different site.  Valley National Financial Advisors assumes no responsibility for the content published on these sites. 

The U.S. stock market suffered its third loss in four weeks as investors struggled to gauge
how Japan’s earthquake, tsunami, and unfolding nuclear emergency might affect the global economic recovery.

Buyers stepped in late last week, reflecting the consensus view that Japan’s disaster and higher oil prices have brought about a mere correction, but not yet the start of a bear market. But the buying was tentative, and the bounce shallow, with many still waiting for clearer signs that the selling pressure has exhausted itself.

At midweek, stocks fell briefly into the red for this year, and were off 6.4% from their Feb. 18 peak. More than half the components of the Standard & Poor’s 500 were plumbing fresh 20-day lows, a sign that the pullback came hard and fast. But credit markets remained relatively stable, both here and in Japan, which supports the argument that traders were simply paring risks after stocks’ 28% rally since August.

Barclays Capital’s economists, for example, say the global recovery should withstand the shocks so far. “The most significant risk comes from an energy-supply shock, where the nuclear uncertainty in Japan could compound the tensions in the Middle East,” they write. They’ve cut projections for Japan’s growth, but “do not foresee a major dislocation to global activity from the calamity.”

Given the prevalence of views like this, any news that Japan’s nuclear fallout is contained could unleash more buying. “This is a consensus intention, and not yet a consensus position,” notes Jan Loeys, JPMorgan’s global head of asset allocation. “The uniformity of positive views seems dangerous, but we see it more as confidence than complacency.”

Beyond that, however, restoring confidence and extending the bull run will require at least two things, says Jonathan Golub, UBS’ chief U.S. equity strategist. Investors will want to see evidence that these recent setbacks haven’t caused corporations and consumers to pull back more permanently. When companies report first-quarter earnings, bulls also will want to see companies passing on higher raw-material costs without too much damage to profit margins.

Markets got a boost Friday from financial stocks, which rallied after the Federal Reserve pronounced some banks healthy enough to be allowed to raise their dividends. JPMorgan (ticker: JPM) promptly upped its quarterly dividend to 25 cents, from 5 cents, while Wells Fargo (WFC) hiked its payout to 12 cents, from 5 cents. Caving to public pressure, the mature tech giant Cisco Systems (CSCO) says it will begin paying a six-cent quarterly dividend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week down 186 points, or 1.5%, to 11,859. The S&P 500 Index absorbed its worst week in four months. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 72, or 2.7%, to 2644, while the Russell 2000 gave up 8, or 1%, to 795.

QUANTIFYING JAPAN’S IMPACT on multinationals is impossible when Tokyo is still fighting to contain the radiation fallout from its nuclear plants. While the tsunami hit less than 5% of the population, power rationing in the aftermath could affect more than 40% and prove the bigger drag, along with the yen’s spike as foreign wealth is repatriated.

Shortages of parts from Japan have already prompted General Motors to shutter a Louisiana plant. Global companies have tended to downplay the disruptions to their supply chains as temporary. But “in a world of typically lean inventories, this could prove optimistic,” says Credit Suisse analyst Richard Kersley. “Moreover, other providers of components, should they source elsewhere, may raise prices.”

Take Mitsubishi Gas and Chemical’s suspended resin production at a plant damaged in the earthquake. A three-month delay in the production of resins and laminates could put at risk up to 50% of the output of chips used in smartphones.

Many tech analysts, have warned clients about potential disruptions, but have yet to change their profit estimates. Apple (AAPL) fell 6% last week, on concerns that the already tight pipeline of its coveted iPads and iPhones might be pinched. Nearly a third of the Boeing 787 is made in Japan, and Boeing (BA) slid 4% (Source: Barrons Online).

Last week for the second consecutive week, US Stocks and Foreign stocks decreased and Bonds increased. During the last 12 months, U.S. STOCKS outperformed BONDS.

Returns through 3-18-2011	1-week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Years	5-Years	10-Years
Bonds- BarCap  Aggregate Index	.4	1.0	5.3	5.7	6.0	5.6
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500	-1.9	2.1	11.9	-4.2	-2.4	1.4
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries	-2.7	-1.0	3.9	– 6.2	-2.0	2.6

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.