***DUE TO VACATION THE NEXT PUBLICATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL JUNE 13, 2011***
I have developed THE solution to fixing this atrocious weather: go south to sunny Florida! I am leaving Thursday for 9 days: Cape Canaveral, Miami (with a round of golf at Doral’s Blue Monster), and Key West including a fishing trip to the Dry Tortugas ending up at a “eat what you catch dinner” at a dockside restaurant. Talk about risk taking – eat what you catch. My wife Jo Anne and my two daughters Erika and Jennifer will have high hopes when the fishing boat comes back into harbor (I am counting on Captain Steve to dial us into those groupers we three fishermen are going after).
Daily Archives: May 24, 2011
Motivational Quote of the Week
“One person with a belief is equal to a force of ninety-nine who have only interests.”
– John Stuart Mill
“Your Financial Choices” on WDIY 88.1 FM
The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®. This week, Laurie will discuss:
“Understanding Student Loans and your other options when paying for college education.”
Laurie will take your calls on this subject and other financial planning topics at 610-758-8810. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton/Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville/Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.
Economic Reports Last Week
Last week there were more NEGATIVE than POSITIVE developments, and short term investors sold stocks as a result.
Below is a succinct list of last week’s events:
Positives:
1) Relief for the consumer as gasoline prices fall $.10 from last week’s high
2) Initial Jobless Claims fall to 409k from 438k (but still above 400k for 6th straight week)
3) Refi’s rise to 5 month high as mortgage rates fall to 5 month low
4) Housing starts/permits below expectations as we have enough existing homes on the market to last 9.2 months at current sales rate
5) German economic sentiment index hits record high, dating back to 1991
Negatives:
1) Greece reaching boiling point, Spanish 2 yr yield up almost 30 bps on week
2) Existing home sales less than expected, not a surprise but still huge drag
3) Housing starts/permits below expectations, continued impact on construction
4) May Philly and NY mfr’g survey’s well below forecasts as mfr’g showing signs of moderation
5) Motor vehicle production falls sharply in April in reaction to Japan disaster
6) Bloomberg consumer confidence falls to lowest since Aug
7) UK CPI hits 4.5%, 3rd highest reading since 1992
Heads UP! Article from The Weekly Commentary of Last Week and FAQ’s
The article appearing in The Weekly Commentary last week resulted in an unusually large amount of interest. It described how the equity/credit cycle works. So, I reprinted it and developed a series of FAQ’s based upon the questions I received.
I read a very interesting discussion about how the equity/credit cycle works:
1. After a washout, valuations are low and momentum is lousy. People/Institutions are scared to death of equities and any instruments with credit exposure. Only rebalancers and deep value players are buying here. There might even be some sales from leveraged players forced by regulators, margin desks, or “Risk control” desks. Liquidity is at a premium.
2. But eventually momentum flattens, and yield spreads for the survivors begin to tighten. Equities may have rallied some, but the move is widely disbelieved. This is usually a good time to buy; even if you do get faked out, and momentum takes another leg down, valuation levels are pretty good, so the net isn’t far below you.
3. Slowly, but persistently the equity market rallies. Momentum is strong. The credit markets are quicker, with spreads tightening to normal-ish levels. Bit-by-bit valuations rise until the markets are fairly valued.
4. Momentum remains strong. Credit spreads are tight. Valuations are high, and most value-type players have reduced their exposures. Liquidity is cheap, and only rebalancers are selling. (This is where we are now.)
5. The market continues to rise, but before the peak, momentum flattens, and the market meanders. Credit spreads remain tight, but are edgy, and maybe a little volatile. This is usually a good time to sell. Remember, tops are often a process.
6. Cash flow proves insufficient to cover the debt at some institution or set of institutions, and defaults ensue. Some think that the problem is an isolated one, but search begins for where there is additional weakness. Credit spreads widen, momentum is lousy, and valuations fall to normal-ish levels.
The true size of the crisis is revealed, defaults mount, valuations are low, credit spreads are high. A few institutions and investors fail who you wouldn’t have expected. Momentum is lousy. We are back to part 1 of the cycle. Remember, bottoms are often an event (Source: David Merkel).
FAQ’s
1. Q: Does the cycle always work as described?
A: No. Unexpected events (either favorable or unfavorable), sometimes called “Black Swans”, can derail the cycle. Examples of such an event are 9/11 or adoption of the internet.
2. Q: Is this cycle widely accepted by economists?
A: This description is not universally accepted by economists because it is based upon David Merkel’s statistical observations instead of an econometric model.
3. Q: Who is David Merkel and what is his background?
A: David is a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) and a FSA (Fellow of the Society of Actuaries) which indicates a strong analytical capability. David appears to possess a keen insight into how to earn money without undue risk.
4. Q: Is this a signal or warning?
A: Yes and No. The equity/credit cycle matches up with The Weekly Commentary’s view which is the markets are currently favorable with the normal amount of risk; BUT, investors are warned that steps 6 and 7 are coming.
5. Q: How long will we remain in the current position within the cycle?
A: David Merkel does not predict this and it is very difficult to do so. The Weekly Commentary has been warning investors that step 6 will occur in 2015, plus or minus 2 years.
6. Q: What specific investment advice should one take from this analysis?
A: We recommend investors maintain their long term asset allocation at this time. But, investors’ portfolios must develop the ability to be nimble to reduce downside risk when steps 6 and 7 occur.
The Markets This Week
The U.S. stock market fell for a third straight week, but is down just 2.2% from its late-April peak. That’s too shallow to even be called a correction. So why do things feel so much worse than they are?
Maybe it’s because the easy, dominant trade of the past eight months—selling low-yielding dollars to buy rallying commodities—has vanished now that the dollar has strengthened, and commodity exchanges are raising margin requirements to cool speculation. Sectors that have led the market—like energy and industrials—are faltering, and the lack of leadership adds to the creeping bewilderment and stocks’ desultory flip-flopping.
Nearly everyone has grown more circumspect. The pace of economic growth seems to be slowing. Energy and raw-material costs have risen. Our central bank’s heroic scheme to buy Treasuries to prop up the markets will end in June. Greece may not be able to pay its loans and may need to restructure its government debt, while China is tightening credit to fight inflation and cool its economy. Perhaps fatigued by such familiar fears, investors seemed more willing to fling themselves at fresher risks they don’t yet know, and the newly public shares of the social-networking site LinkedIn (LNKD) jumped 109% on its debut.
The latest survey of global fund managers by BofA Merrill Lynch showed how swiftly conviction has evaporated. Only a net 10% of respondents see stronger global economic growth over the next 12 months, down from 58% as recently as February. Alas, weakening economic momentum may not ease inflationary prices, most likely because it will give our central bank another excuse to keep printing money longer. The cadre of money managers fretting about higher inflation declined only slightly, to 61% in the latest survey from 75% in March, while an increasing majority now expects the Federal Reserve to defer raising interest rates until at least 2012.
The troubling thing about such an apprehensive crowd, and stocks still perched near the highest levels in years, is how the slightest excuse could trigger a further flight from risk. On Friday, Fitch slashed Greece’s credit ratings by three notches and set off a retreat from government bonds of peripheral euro-zone countries, but U.S. stocks fell just 0.8%. But eventually, and this could take a while, lower expectations will make it easier for even our sluggish economy to surprise and appease investors.
Thomas Lee, JPMorgan’s U.S. equity strategist, thinks downside risk from the end of the Fed’s second quantitative easing could prove more limited than feared. During the first quantitative-easing campaign, or QE1, Standard & Poor’s 500 companies had seen their dividends shrivel 24% while per-share profits fell 12%. Corporations are on firmer footing now, and dividends have grown 12% since the Fed signaled QE2’s start, with earnings up 13%.
The Dow industrials fell for a third straight week, ending the week down 84, or 0.7%, to 12,512. While this pullback has been shallow so far, the three-week slide marks its longest since late August—incidentally just before the Fed breathed new life into risky assets. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 25, or 0.9%, to 2803, while the Russell 2000 slipped 7, or 0.8%, to 829 (Source: Barrons Online).
The Numbers
Last week, US Stocks and Foreign stocks decreased and Bonds increased. During the last 12 months, U.S. STOCKS outperformed BONDS.
Returns through 5-20-2011 | 1-week | Y-T-D | 1-Year | 3-Years | 5-Years | 10-Years |
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index | .2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.8 |
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500 | -.3 | 5.6 | 21.5 | -4.6 | -1.7 | .7 |
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries | -.9 | 2.7 | 26.0 | – 8.0 | -1.5 | 2.3 |
Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.