The Markets This Week



America may have no other choice than to run on Dunkin’ if Washington fails to avert a looming fiscal crisis by the Aug. 2 deadline to lift the debt ceiling and agree on spending cuts.

Although House Speaker John Boehner pushed a bill through the lower house late Friday to raise the debt ceiling, it seemed highly unlikely to get Senate approval, as it called for, among other contentious items, a Constitutional balanced-budget amendment.

The federal government hit the $14.3 trillion debt cap in May, and Treasury has been rolling over its debt to squeak by. The ever-present threat is that at some point the debt won’t be as attractive to as many buyers—especially if there were to be a credit downgrade—and interest rates will have to rise as an enticement, putting the U.S. in an even deeper hole.

U.S. stocks posted their worst performance in a year, dragged down by the threat that the nation’s triple-A credit rating could be cut.

Friday marked the sixth straight day of losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 537.92 points, or 4.24%, for the week, to 12,143.24, the largest weekly drop in percentage terms since July 2, 2010. The Nasdaq shed 102.5 points, or 3.58%, to end the week at 2756.38. Gold surged to an all-time high of $1,632.30 a troy ounce before falling back to $1626.40, as investors looked for cover.

Dashing spirits further, data released Friday showed that the U.S. economy grew at an anemic 1.3% rate in the second quarter, up from 0.4% in the first, but below the 1.8% that had been expected by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, rose by a slight 0.1%, mainly because of higher prices for gasoline and food.

Amid growing anxiety in the markets about a possible U.S. default on its debt, investors managed to muster lots of enthusiasm for the shares of coffee-seller and doughnut maker Dunkin’ Brands Group (ticker: DNKN), lifting the stock to 27 from its initial public offering price of 19 on Wednesday, a gain of more than 50%. The success of Dunkin’ was emulated by Teavana (TEA), a specialty tea retailer with a strong online presence; its stock soared more than 60% from its 17-a-share offering price in the first day of trading Thursday. Both stocks came out of the box priced above their expected ranges. There was also strong interest in gourmet-food retailer Chef’s Warehouse (CHEF), which rose about 17%, from an initial 15 in its debut. All are tied to discretionary spending and commodity costs, but investors are betting on strong growth from store expansion.

Retail IPOs are up on average about 60% from their offering price, versus 11% for all IPOs this year, according to Renaissance Capital. Last week was the busiest for IPOs since November 2007—but they weren’t enough to prop up the market (Source: Barrons Online).

The Numbers:

Last week, US Stocks and Foreign Stocks decreased. Bonds increased. During the last 12 months, U.S. STOCKS outperformed BONDS.




































Returns through 7-29-2011


1-week


Y-T-D


1-Year


3-Years


5-Years


10-Years


Bonds- BarCap  Aggregate Index


.6


4.4


4.4


7.1


6.6


5.7


US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500


-4.2


3.8


12.6


-2.4


-2.9


.7


Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries


-2.2


1.3


13.9


-4.1


-1.8


3.1


Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.