They are frequently wrong. And, being well known and quoted on CNBC or in some other media does not matter. Highly improbable things happen all too frequently; and, they have deep and unpredictable impact on our world.

For some examples of incorrect forecasts and predictions I accumulated for a past Weekly Commentary, see below:

1. ONWARD AND UPWARD – The S&P 500 was up +9.2% YTD (total return) through Friday 7/20/07, closing at 1534. The headline in Barron’s over that weekend stated “It’s Still Time to Buy” forecasting an additional +6% rise to 1625 by 12/31/07. Instead the stock index fell 4.3% to finish 2007 at 1468 and a whopping 37% in 2008 (source: Barron’s).

2. STRONG FINISH? – As of Labor Day in 2007 (9/03/07), there were just 4 months remaining in the calendar year. The S&P 500 had closed the previous week at 1474. Barron’s asked 8 equity strategists to predict where the S&P 500 would finish the calendar year 2007. 7 of the 8 saw a rising stock market by year-end with one prognosticator foreseeing a 12/31/07 value of 1700 (source: Barron’s).

3. FALLING – In January 2007, the S&P 500 companies anticipated 2007 earnings growth of +9.4% from a year earlier. The actual equaled a 4% decline (source: S&P, FT).

4. CLUELESS – At the close of business on Wednesday 10/09/02, the S&P 500 bottomed at 777 before beginning a bull market run that gained +101% to peak at 1565 on 10/09/07, exactly 5 years to the day after the bear market bottom. The headline in the business section of USA Today on Thursday morning 10/10/02 was “Where’s the Bottom, No End in Sight” (source: USA Today).

5. STOCK MARKET CRASH TRIVIA – On the morning of 10/19/87, the trading day that ultimately resulted in the largest 1-day percentage loss in the history of the S&P 500, the WSJ ran a front-page article with the subtitle “Some Stay Bullish, Believing Downturn is Temporary.” The S&P 500 fell 20.5% that day (source: WSJ).

6. THE DEAD RISE – On 8/13/79, Business Week ran a cover story that was titled “The Death of Equities.” The S&P 500 closed at 107 on 8/13/79. The S&P 500 closed calendar year 2007 at 1468 (source: Business Week).

7. NO CHANGE – The USA Today Economist of the Year for 2006 (Richard DeKaser) predicted on 3/20/07 that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2007, leaving them at 5.25%. Instead the Fed lowered rates by 4 times (source: USA Today).

8. THEY MISSED AGAIN – The average prediction made on 1/01/07 by 58 Wall Street forecasters for the yield on the 10-year Treasury note as of year-end 2007 was 4.88%, an increase of +0.17% over its 4.71% level from 12/31/06. Instead the actual 12/31/07 yield did not rise from a year earlier but fell to 4.02% (source: Business Week).

9. THE HERD – 82% of money managers believed in late December 2006 (and again in December , 2010) that long-term interest rates in the US would be “unchanged or higher 12 months later.” The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was not “flat to higher” but rather declined from 4.81% to 4.45% during calendar year 2007 (source: Merrill Lynch).

10. IT DIDN’T DROP – 56 economists that were surveyed in mid-January 2007 predicted that the average price of oil would be $58 a barrel in the 4th quarter 2007, down $3 a barrel from its $61.05 price of 12/31/06. However the price of oil did not fall but rather rose +57% during 2007, closing last year at $95.98 a barrel (source: USA Today).