Monthly Archives: April 2012
Personal Notes
It was a tough loss yesterday in the “Battle of Pennsylvania” when the Philadelphia Flyers eliminated the Pittsburgh Penguins in National Hockey League playoffs. I think the Penguins have an outstanding team with plenty of talent. But, the Flyers have had great success against them. We need to attribute a great deal of their success to Philadelphia’s coach and General Manager. I wish the best to the Flyers and I hope they carry the Stanley Cup back to Pennsylvania!
Economic Reports Last Week
Last week was a good week for economic reports as POSITIVE developments
exceeded NEGATIVE developments
Below is a succinct list of last week’s
events:
Positives:
1) German business confidence index and investor economic confidence index showed improvement.
2) Spain sold 12 mo, 18 mo, 2 yr and 10 yr debt successfully, yields hold steady near highest since December.
3) UK retail sales and jobs data both better than expected.
4) US Retail Sales in March broad based and above estimates but core figure ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials were touch light.
5) Housing construction permits rise to most since Sept ’08 led by multi family housing.
6) Refinancing applications rise to 5 week high as mortgage rates drop near lows again.
7) Brazil and India both cut interest rates as focus more on growth than inflation.
8) Shanghai index closes at 5 week high on growing speculation of another Reserve Requirement Ratio cut.
9) Positive for Japanese exporters as yen weakens after Bank of Japan deputy Gov says they will print all the yen it takes to get to 1% inflation.
Negatives:
1) While Spanish yields flat on week, Credit Default Swap rate rises to record high, the Spanish IBEX stock index trades near lowest since Mar ’09, Italian 10 yr rises to just shy of highest since Feb, Italian and French Credit Default Swap at most expensive since Jan
2) Initial Jobless Claims again surprises to upside, 4 week average rises to most since Jan
3) Existing Home Sales, Starts and National Association of Home Builder’s builder survey all below expectations
4) Purchase applications fall to 6 week low
5) NY and Philly manufacturing surveys fall but components mixed
6) Industrial Production flat month over month
7) China says home prices fall in 37 cities in March, up from 27 in Feb
Source: The Big Picture
The Markets This Week
Stocks finished generally higher last week, and on an up note Friday. Nevertheless, a big drop in Apple’s (AAPL) share price and some other highflying stocks damped market sentiment.
In particular, investors last week were worried about the first round of elections in France, scheduled April 22, where Socialist party presidential front-runner François Hollande could score important gains. Some momentum investors in particular wanted to get out of way of any losses that might come next week on electoral results unfriendly to capital markets.
On the domestic front, the first-quarter earnings results seen so far are as expected, for the most part. Second-quarter U.S. economic data continue to be less positive than that seen in the first quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%, or 180 points, to 13,029.26, for the first weekly gain in three weeks. Bucking the trend, and hurt by Apple’s 5.3% drop, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite drooped 0.36% to 300.
Other stocks that fell last week after huge run-ups included Priceline.com (PCLN), down 3.4%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), falling 5% even though it posted strong first-quarter results last week. These are names being “rented” by momentum funds, but they are getting skittish ahead of the elections and earnings results, traders say.
“The French elections will be closely watched,” says Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management, “and a big influence was Apple,” which is reporting first-quarter earnings Tuesday.
Apple has shown two weeks of relative underperformance, which is unusual for this stock.
The big event for markets over the next four weeks or so will be the giant Facebook initial public offering, which will probably come about mid-May, he Ghriskey says. It’s likely to be a huge IPO where the value and demand will be closely watched by market participants. The Facebook road-show is likely to get under way soon, and if the IPO goes well, it could give a lift to the market as a whole, he says (Source: Barrons Online).
The Numbers This Week
Last week was a good week for economic reports as POSITIVE developments
exceeded NEGATIVE developments.
Returns through 4-20-2012 |
1-week |
Y-T-D |
1-Year |
3-Years |
5-Years |
10-Years |
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index |
.1 |
1.2 |
8.0 |
6.9 |
6.4 |
5.7 < /td> |
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500 |
.6 |
10.3 |
5.9 |
20.8 |
.7 |
4.1 |
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries |
1.6 |
7.0 |
-13.0 |
10.3 |
-7.6 |
2.6 |
Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into
directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding
dividends.