Retail investors who just recently started feasting on stocks again are getting a serious case of indigestion, and some are seeking the comfort of an old staple: cash. Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s purchasing plans has sunk bond markets in recent weeks, and stocks have also proven unsteady; the drop hasn’t been dramatic, but it has been persistent. The major indexes have now fallen three times in the past four weeks.
The Dow fell 177.94 points, or 1.17%, on the week to close at 15,070.18. The index fell 105.9 points on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped 16.65 points to 1626.73. The Nasdaq composite fell 45.66 points, or 1.32%, to 3423.56.
Investors continue to seek clarification from the Fed, which hinted that it might curtail its $85 billion-per-month asset-buying program later this year as the economy picks up. A change in that plan would be relatively small in terms of absolute dollars—the Fed might cut its purchases of securities by $10 billion or $20 billion per month. But even the suggestion of a reduction has rippled across global markets. Bonds in emerging economies have tumbled since early May, and the International Monetary Fund warned the U.S. central bank on Friday that the way it communicates its intentions could disrupt economies in far-off places.
With all that in mind, Ben Bernanke will sit before a lectern next Wednesday and answer questions from the press following a meeting of the FOMC. Traders will likely remain on edge Monday and Tuesday.
“The market has become a drug addict and the Fed is the dealer,” says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research. “Everybody’s going through the shock of withdrawal.”
INVESTORS AREN’T FLEEING the markets en masse yet—bond and equity funds saw inflows in May, according to ICI. But retail money-market funds have risen by $20 billion in the past two weeks, including $11 billion in the week ended June 12. That’s the largest jump since Jan. 2.
Cash earns you “bupkis,” while U.S. stocks are still attractive, Yardeni notes. “Staying home is good advice for equity investors.”
U.S. conglomerates with foreign exposure might be the best bet, says Bank of America’s head equity strategist Savita Subramanian. Stocks with high foreign exposure are trading almost at parity with domestic-focused stocks in their price to sales ratio, a rare phenomenon. (In 2009, multinationals were more than twice as expensive as U.S.-centric names.) That’s partially because “the housing recovery is the No. 1 theme investors have been buying into” and expectations for U.S. investments have been revised higher as the rest of the world has been revised lower. If history serves, the momentum could shift back toward multinationals ( Source: Barrons Online).