The stock market is breaking records this year faster than Barry Bonds. Are we implying that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is “juicing” the market? Let’s just say the recent leaps seem a bit unnatural.
For the 25th time this year, the Dow notched a new all-time closing record on Friday. The S&P 500 hit its 19th record close of the year, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index hit its highest closing price since those bubbly dot-com days of September 2000.
Bernanke spoke at a conference this week and assuaged investor concerns that a tapering of bond purchases means that interest rates will rise next year. Even if the economy hits a 6.5% unemployment rate, the federal-funds rate might remain at 0%, he said.
Bernanke, in fact, has “ceded control of monetary policy to the markets,” wrote Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading. “The Fed has already admitted the exit strategy will no longer work and now the market doubts its ability to stop easing.”
Rate-sensitive stocks rallied on Bernanke’s assurances, with home builders spiking. “Reits [real-estate investment trusts], mortgage reits, utilities, and precious metals received a new reflationary bid after a nine-month correction,” he noted.
If builders keep rising, “that group will set up a tremendous shorting opportunity,” he says.
For the week the Dow rose 328.46 points, or 2.17%, to 15,464.30. The S&P 500 added 48.30 points to close at 1680.19, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 120.70 points, or 3.47%, to 3600.08.
Economic data and earnings results also helped inspire confidence in the markets last week. t (ticker: AA) unofficially kicked off earnings season on Monday with a solid report, and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) beat analysts’ earnings estimates on Friday. Of course, analysts have been ratcheting down second-quarter earnings expectations for the past few months, meaning that earnings “beats” are not as impressive.
“While we’re beating expectations, it’s off of reduced expectations,” says Troy Logan, senior economist at financial advisor Warren Financial Service. Logan remains bullish on U.S. equities, and financials in particular ( Source: Barrons Online).