Most Consumers (people) are feeling
wealthier. And, here’s why.
Home prices, on average in the U.S., are
on their way back. According to the
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, home prices have now reached
the level they first reached in 2005.
Home prices have some room to move to reach the “high water” level of
2007; but, solid progress is being made.
The stock market’s 2013 gain has added
$3.8 trillion to investors’ account values.
The Federal Reserve Bank in 2013 has
added almost $1 trillion to the financial system (through quantitative easing).
People should spend more when one of two
things is true: (1) when people actually are wealthier; or (2) when people
perceive themselves to be wealthier.
Spending helps the economy to improve.
An improving economy helps increase stock market and real estate
prices. This circular, reinforcing
system is the basis of the U.S. economic engine which has been kick-started by
the FED and is warming up.
Most
of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars”
that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each
of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: I grade this factor a C (neutral).
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: I continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the
FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset
prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: I continue to grade this factor an A (very favorable).
NOTE: the above grades are unchanged from last
week.
More
“positive” than “negative” economic reports were released last week indicating the
U.S. economy continues to show improvement.
New home sales, stronger payroll data, higher level of manufacturing
& construction, lower trade deficit, and stronger consumer sentiment all
pointed toward the “positive” direction.
And, the 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product (an approximation
of the U.S. economic output) came in at 3.6% annualized increase versus a 3.1%
expectation.
On
the negative side, interest rates moved higher thus reducing the number of
refinancing of home mortgages.
Additionally, a significant increase in inventories occurred – consumers
need to buy these products sitting on the shelves in order to keep the economic
ball rolling forward.
Last week, U.S. Stocks increased while Foreign Stocks and Bonds declined. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.
Returns through 12-6-2013
1-week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Years
5-Years
10-Years
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index
-.5
-2.0
-2.2
3.0
5.0
4.6
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500
.1
29.1
30.4
16.3
18.1
7.6
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries
-2.2
17.8
17.8
4.7
11.1
4.2
Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.
“Your Financial Choices” The show airs on WDIY
Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s
Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This
week, join Laurie her guest, Rod Young, CPA, CFP(r) as they discuss:
“Year-end
tax planning before it’s too late”
Laurie will take your calls on this topic and other inquiries
this week. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh
Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area;
and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville and Macungie area – or
listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information,
including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com
and visit www.wdiy.org.
You have not heard me sing. There is a reason. My lack of voice control coupled with my
inability to carry a tune guarantees I will not be asked to join a glee
club. However, I have been
“recorded”. And it happened
yesterday. My wife Jo Anne and I
attended the Bach Choir of Bethlehem Christmas Concert held at the First
Presbyterian Church located on Center Street, Bethlehem. It was recorded so as to create a CD which
will be placed on sale soon. The entire audience
was invited to participate in three well known songs including, “O Come All Ye
Faithful”. So I sang and thus was
“recorded”. I did not sing too loudly
since I happened to be standing only a few feet from the recording microphone
(ha, ha).
Seriously, the Lehigh Valley is blessed to have this talented, dedicated,
hard working group to perform such magical harmonies. It’s world class. And, it’s here in the Lehigh Valley. For more information including a link to the
CD, click: http://www.bach.org/
Good news was once again actually regarded as good
news—at least for a day.
Friday, stocks jumped sharply, bolstered by positive
economic data. That took the market from a week headed for a sharp loss to one
that finished mixed.
In previous weeks, a perverse logic—still in
evidence as late as Thursday—had gripped investors, with the market sometimes
sliding on occasional news of strong economic figures. Investors fear that such
data will push the Federal Reserve to begin its intended removal of its
bond-buying sooner rather than later. That easy-money policy has helped pushed
stocks to record highs this year.
Most investors appear to believe the Fed will begin
the taper in the first quarter and not at the coming Federal Open Market
Committee meeting Dec. 17-18, but there’s a residual fear of that.
After eight consecutive weekly gains, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 0.4% or 66 points to 16,020.20. The Standard &
Poor’s 500 lost less than 1 point. The
Nasdaq Composite Index rose slightly, 0.1% or three points, to 4062.52.
The data last
week collectively showed one of the strongest economic pictures in some time.
The gamut of figures—jobs, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, gross domestic
product—all suggested a modestly accelerating U.S. economy.
The switch in the market’s reaction to the good news
suggests it previously was more concerned about the economy than the Fed
tapering, says Malcolm Pulley, president of Stewart Capital Advisors. In other
words, investors feared the stimulus reduction would begin when the economy
wasn’t ready. But the slew of solid data was strong enough to get investors
thinking it is.
Friday, the Labor Department said payrolls rose by
203,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 7%, the lowest in
five years. The consensus, respectively, was for 185,000 jobs and a 7.2%
jobless rate. Thursday, the third-quarter annualized GDP was revised up to a
solid 3.6% from 2.8%, and well above the 3.1% consensus.
Much of that GDP rise was due to rising inventories,
points out Pulley, and if those inventories aren’t bought up in the first
quarter, the market could be disappointed.
As for tapering,
Marc Pado, president of DowBull, an investment advisor, says Friday’s reaction
also means the market is getting both more comfortable and certain of the
coming tapering. The economy looks to be getting “a little bit of
traction…and a March taper is pretty certain now,” he adds.
The market strategist adds that while some think a
December move is still possible, the Fed will want to give Janet Yellen, set to
succeed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Feb. 1, time to settle in without the strum
and daring that a December tapering could elicit.
Indeed, the only thing that could prevent a strong
second half of December is a surprise tapering by the Fed next week (Source: Barrons Online).
