Daily Archives: January 28, 2014

Heads Up!

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The Asian Financial crisis of 1997 – 1998 helped to cause some extraordinary volatility in the US markets in 1997 and 1998.  Here is a look at price movements on the S&P:



2/18/97-4/1/97                 – 9.6%


8/6/97-8/29/97                 – 6.3%


10/7/97-10/27/97             -10.8%


12/5/97-12/24/97             – 5.48%


1/5/98-1/9/98                    – 5.05%


7/17/98-10/8/98                -19.0%



Surprisingly, the stock market’s return for the two years 1997 – 1998 were very attractive, even with the above volatility:



1997 S&P 500 (including dividends)  +33%


1998 S&P 500 (including dividends) +28%



Bottom Line
Based upon what we know at this time, we recommend you “Stay the Course”.  We may see additional volatility in 2014.  Although unnerving and panic creating, it is important to keep our investment disciplines and review past episodes to ease your concerns.  We note that economic indicators across the developed world continue to show improvement.  As graded below, the U.S. consumer is spending a healthy amount, the FED continues to be accommodative, and corporate earnings remain strong which should support continued increases in the US stock markets for the long run.  Our investment models are more heavily weighted toward developed economies which arguably have preferable risk/reward characteristics vs. that of emerging economies.

IRS Update: What’s New?

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The IRS recently created a new application to obtain income tax return transcripts fairly easily.  Any taxpayer can create an account and pull their tax transcripts for the prior three years in real time.  Clients who need copies of past returns for mortgage applications, student loans or other uses can now obtain them from any computer or even a smart phone.


Per the IRS, Return Transcripts (2013 back to 2010) will meet the requirements of lending institutions offering mortgages and student loans.



To obtain, use the link “Order a Return or AccountTranscript” under “Tools” link on the IRS.gov homepage.

The “Heat Map”

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Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars. 



CONSUMER SPENDING:  I grade this factor a B- (slightly favorable). 



THE FED AND ITS POLICIES:  I continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.



BUSINESS PROFITABILITY:  I continue to grade this factor an A (very favorable).  We are now in the midst of earnings reporting season for the quarter ending 12/31/13.  So far, the blended earnings-growth rate for S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter, comprising actual results and estimates for companies yet to report, is 6.4%, according to FactSet Research as reported in Barrons Online. We will maintain our “A” rating if this +6.4% holds up.

The Economy

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Harsh winter conditions in many parts of the U.S. has reduced the confidence of consumers and home builders, creating a mixed picture of the U.S. economic activity.  Meanwhile, jobs data and business activity level continue to improve.  Distressed sales of residences declined (a sign of improvement) and housing inventory declined.  Inflation remains low except in nat gas and propane in the Midwest and Northeast. 



In the past, a weather related lull in consumer confidence typically was followed by a pickup in confidence.  This uptick could be timed with a robust spring real estate market to create a strong bounce back economy.

The Numbers

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Last week, Bonds Increased, however, U.S. and Foreign Stocks decreased. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.   





































Returns through 1-24-2014

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years


Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

    .1

 1.1

 – .6

  3.7

 4.8

4.5


US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

  -2.6

  -3.1

21.1

13.5

18.6

6.7


Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

   -1.8

  -1.8

10.6

  2.7

10.4

3.6


Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

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 “Your Financial Choices”  The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.  This week, join Laurie her guest, Executive VP and COO of Merchants Bank, Tracie Smith, as they discuss: “Banking Services- Experience the Difference Locally”


Laurie will take your calls on this topic and other inquiries this week. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville and Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet.  For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org. 

Personal Notes

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My boyhood home, located in a remote part of Western PA, draws the media’s attention one day each year – on February 2nd– which happens to occur this coming Sunday:



The Meaning of Groundhog Day & Punxsutawney Phil, the “seer of seers and prognosticator of prognosticators,” is a groundhog resident of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, USA. On February 2, (Groundhog Day) of each year, the town of Punxsutawney celebrates the beloved groundhog with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins well before the winter sunrise, Phil emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler’s Knob, located in a rural area about 2 miles east of town. According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, the United States will have six more weeks of winter. If Phil does not see his shadow, spring will arrive early. The date of Phil’s prognostication is known as Groundhog Day in the United States and Canada.  This year Phil did see his shadow as is normally the case.

The Markets This Week

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Stock-market bulls had their mettle tested last week, as the major indexes fell 3% in the biggest weekly selloff since mid-2012. After last year’s rocket ride, investors who forgot that the U.S. stock market is still tethered to global markets were rudely reminded that it’s a small world after all.


The retreat was sounded, before the U.S. markets opened Thursday, by surprisingly poor economic numbers from China. That snowballed into sizeable currency declines in emerging-market countries around the world, among them Argentina and Turkey. The avalanche moved to U.S. shores, where shares sold off precipitously Thursday and Friday. Unspectacular fourth-quarter earnings and domestic economic reports took a back seat to the global turmoil. Small-cap stocks fell hard, too, as investors switched to the “risk off” trade.


By the end of a holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.5% or 580 points to 15,879.11. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost  48 points to 1790.29. The Nasdaq Composite index gave back 1.7%, or 69 points, to 4128.17. The Russell 2000 small cap index fell 3.3% to 1142.66 from a high of 1181.29 Wednesday.


Kate Warne, an investment strategist at Edward Jones, says the Chinese data, much weaker than expected, revived worries of a growth slowdown in the Middle Kingdom. That translated into fear about other emerging markets, many of which are important suppliers of raw materials or other inputs to China. Released before the U.S. markets opened Thursday, the HSBC January China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.6 from 50.5 in December. A below 50 reading suggests contraction.


 (Source:  Barrons Online).