The “Heat Map”

Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: We grade this factor to A- (very favorable)

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: We have raised this factor grade to a B+ (above average). With over 360 companies in the S&P 500 having reported third-quarter results, profits are up 7.2% and revenue 3.9%, says Sheraz Mian, Zacks’ director of research. The improving tone of the reports has been a subtle, constructive factor, adds TD Ameritrade chief strategist J.J. Kinahan.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in good shape ASSUMING no international crisis. We have added the risk of an EBOLA pandemic to the “powder keg” in the Middle East to the situations to be watched. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these collectively as a 2, reduced from a rating of 3 in last week’s commentary. Risks continue to lurk, and they deserve our ongoing attention.

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