The Economy

Last week the positive economic reports exceeded the negative. Following is a quick summary of the events:

Positives:

  1. Initial jobless claims fell to 289k vs estimates of 305k.
  2. Consumer Price Index in China rose 1.4% year over year, higher than expected.
  3. National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index came in at 98.
  4. Mortgage Brokers Association purchase applications rose 1.9%.
  5. Import prices fell 9.4% year over year, a win for the consumer.

Negatives:

  1. Core US retail sales fell 0.2% vs an expected rise of 0.3%.
  2. Headline Producer Price Index fell 0.5%, way more than the expected 0.3% rise. The disinflation theme continues. Core price index also fell 0.5%.
  3. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 91.2 to a four-month low and below the 95.5 expected.
  4. Refinance applications fell 2.9%.
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