U.S. equities moved slightly higher in a short week of quiet trading. The major indexes inched up but airlines fell 5% and biotechs slipped 4%. The Nasdaq also bucked the trend and fell slightly.
Investors continue to be confounded by hot and cold running U.S. economic data, which has kept the market range-bound since late November. Expect markets to be weak Monday after the latest example, Friday’s payrolls data, released when U.S. stock markets were closed in observance of Good Friday. Bond markets rallied Friday, but the dollar and stock futures fell.
The Labor Department said March nonfarm payrolls rose 126,000, far below expectations of almost double that. Earlier in the week saw a mix of lower jobless claims but a softer-than-expected private payrolls number, as well as a weak factory activity report that conflicted with a stronger purchasing managers’ index.
In the game of assessing whether bad news is really bad news, Friday’s data are probably bad news for equities. They indicate slower growth, and investors wonder if the Federal Reserve will move more slowly with anticipated interest-rate increases later this year or keep to the presumed September hike.
The “safe zone” would have been 200,000 to 300,000 payrolls, says James McDonald, chief investment strategist for Northern Trust. Because of conflicting data, investors want to see a better economy before taking on more risk in the form of stocks, he adds.
“Don’t read too much into payrolls, however, as it’s an often-revised number,” adds Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede Investment and Wealth Management. Bad weather, a strong dollar, and weak energy prices probably played their part in depressing the numbers, he says. There remain positive economic signs here and in Europe, he adds. Pride points out that the bigger picture for jobs is improving (Source: Barrons Online).