Heads Up!

Valley National takes great pride in announcing Valley National’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Matt Petrozelli has been recognized as a member of “Forty under 40” by the Lehigh Valley Business magazine.

This awards program celebrates 40 of the Greater Lehigh Valley’s most accomplished young businessmen and women who have been making headlines in their field and who share a commitment to business growth, professional excellence and to the community. For more information, click here.

The Economy

Last week the Positive economic reports outweighed the Negative reports. Here are the Positives:

  1. National Federation of Independent Businesses’ small business optimism came in at 98.3, the highest reading of the year.
  1. University of Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 94.6, up from 90.7 in May.
  1. US core retail sales rose 0.7% month over month and 3.3% year over year.
  1. Job openings rose to 5.38 million, the largest reading on record.
  1. Headline Producer Price Index rose 0.5% month over month, slightly higher than expected. Core PPI rose just .1% month over month.

Here are the Negative economic reports last week:

1. US jobless claims came in at 279k, slightly more than expected and up from 277k last week.

The “Heat Map”

Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is a B (favorable).

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this Tuesday and Wednesday, but no action on interest rates is anticipated. Nevertheless, “expect investors to parse the Fed’s words closely,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a B– (slightly above average). This was raised this week because the first quarter’s profits were better than expected and the current quarter is looking promising.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The Numbers

Last week, U.S. Stocks, Foreign Stocks and Bonds all decreased. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.

Returns through 6-12-2015

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

.1

-.3

2.1

1.8

3.5

4.4

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

 .1

2.7

10.7

19.0

16.4

8.0

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

.3

6.9

-2.6

13.8

9.0

5.3

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie and her guest, Steve Stelzman of The Mortgage Company will discuss: “The Mortgage Approval Process.”

Laurie and Steve will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week. This show will be broadcast at the regular time. Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville and Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet.  For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.

The Markets This Week

Stocks finished a seesaw week in which the sizable gains notched by Thursday evaporated Friday. Still, the major indexes finished slightly higher and snapped losing streaks.

After rising nearly 1%, boosted by bullish retail and jobless data, markets were whacked by a breakdown in talks between the International Monetary Fund and Greece over the country’s bailout. The IMF left the negotiating table Thursday. Greece has a June 18 repayment deadline, or it faces default and possible exit from the monetary union. The last nail in the rally’s coffin came from Congress’s vote Friday to defeat an important part of the Obama administration’s proposed fast-track Pacific trade bill.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 49 points, or 0.3%, on the week, to 17,898.84. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index inched up one point to 2094.11. The Nasdaq Composite fell 17, or 0.3%, to 5051.10.

Although Greece is a small country and its economic plight is well known, a default “can scare people,” says Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. There might be some impact on risk appetite or on a particular bank, says Lee. But, he adds, “it doesn’t pose the same risk it did three years ago.”

Christopher Hyzy, chief investment officer of U.S. Trust Bank of America Private Wealth Management, says big investors are moving money from fixed-income assets to cash. A bullish Hyzy says “…that cash should go into equities once the data show there is no worry over economic growth.”

(Source: Barrons Online)