The Markets This Week

Who’s afraid of Brexit?

Most of the world’s stock markets, it appears. Bond markets, however, not so much, as investors fled to safe-haven fixed-income assets last week and abandoned equities.

The major U.S. indexes fell more than 1% in volatile trading, caused by uncertainty about the potential outcome of the United Kingdom’s June 23 referendum on whether to leave the European Union.

Also unnerving investors were fears of slowing U.S. growth. The Federal Reserve not only didn’t raise interest rates last Wednesday, as expected, but it also lowered its projections of U.S. growth and future hikes. Not so expected. The Fed now looks for paltry annual economic expansion of 2% through 2018.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 190 points, or 1.1%, to 17,675.16. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index declined 25 points to 2071.22, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.9%, to 4800.34.

That markets are pretty nervous is clear from the first-ever drop below zero in yields on 10-year German bonds, says Michael Sheldon, chief investment officer at Northstar Wealth Partners. With rates negative or low in other developed-nations bond markets, “we are in uncharted territory,” he says.

He doesn’t expect a recession this year, but global bond-market behavior “has an increasing number of investors worried that there is something out there that should have us more worried.”

“The Fed’s in a pickle,” says Aaron Clark, a portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management. “It wants to raise rates, but the data isn’t strong enough.”

The central bank continually has had to back away from its own overly aggressive projections in the past two years. “The Fed’s credibility is at risk,” says Clark.

Although Brexit seems to be holding U.S. stocks hostage, Clark says an EU exit might be priced in. European banks have been crushed, he notes, with some down 40% and others at lows not seen in years.

There might not be much more downside if Britons vote to leave, but there could be a pretty rapid and volatile unwinding of positions if the U.K. votes to remain, he adds.

And, if you haven’t had enough of the Fed, Chair Janet Yellen is testifying in Congress Tuesday and Wednesday.

(Source: Barrons Online)

Heads Up!

Starting with July statements delivered in August, Charles Schwab will issue monthly statements only for accounts that have a qualifying transaction—such as a deposit or a withdrawal—within the reporting month. All accounts will continue to receive quarterly statements as usual, regardless of their activity level.

Based on client feedback and industry standards, Charles Schwab believes that this can provide a streamlined experience for clients.

Below, I’ve included some of the important points from the original communication we received from Charles Schwab:

  • This change will apply to e-Statements, paper statements, and bundled statements;
  • Clients who receive bundled statements will only see balances on their bundled statement summary for accounts that have qualifying activity;
  • Inserts in your May account statements (sent in June) will let you know that this policy change is coming.

If you have any other questions please feel free to contact your service team. Some of you may wish to continue to receive monthly statements for accounts without qualifying activity – we would be happy to arrange that for you. Please contact us prior to July 15 so you do not experience any changes to your current statement experience. If you have already spoken with your service team, you do not need to take further action.

The “Heat Map”

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated B (favorable). The U.S. economy can handle higher rates as long as the pace of future interest rate increases is slow. Fed Chair Janet Yellen made clear in her press conference after the December meeting that the path higher would be “gradual”.  She reiterated this impression last week also.

The Fed’s plan to gradually raise rates in the coming years won’t derail the economy and brings some certainty to the market, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a C- (below average). The first quarter corporate-earnings reports weren’t as bad as anticipated but certainly nothing to write home about.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 3. While decreased, these risks still deserve our ongoing attention.

The Numbers

Last week, Bonds and U.S. Stocks increased.  Foreign stocks decreased.   During the last 12 months, BONDS outperformed STOCKS.

Returns through 6-10-2016

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

.4

4.5

5.8

3.5

3.5

5.0

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

.5

4.5

4.0

11.1

12.8

7.7

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

-1.7

-2.6

-10.8

1.7

2.6

2.2

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie and guest host Doug McCormick, author of “Family Inc.” will discuss:

“Using Business Principles To Maximize Your Family’s Wealth”

Laurie and Doug will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week. Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie. This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area– or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.

The Markets This Week

It’s too bad the trading week didn’t end Wednesday.

Major stock-market indexes finished the week mixed, and sharply below midweek levels, which came within a whisker of previous all-time highs. Instead, investors took profits Thursday, and especially Friday, on the rally that started in late May. Low trading volume exacerbated the decline. The Dow Jones Industrials rose 58 points, or 0.3%, on the week, to 17,865.34. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index lost and finished at 2096.07, although it set a new 52-week closing high Wednesday of 2119.12. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1%, to 4894.55.

European markets weakened on concerns about the coming Brexit vote, which will determine whether the United Kingdom leaves the European Union. Bond markets around the world rose as buyers sought a refuge from uncertainty.

Investors are confused by a plethora of polls with conflicting results. Some surveys show a majority will vote to leave the EU, but others indicate the country will remain. Although rising crude prices helped to propel stocks early in the week, oil fell sharply in the final two sessions.

Stocks fell in London, as did the British pound, and the anxiety migrated to U.S. markets on Friday, says Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management.

“You saw a lot of yield-chasing going on,” says David Seaburg, head of sales trading at Cowen. German, U.K., and Japanese government debt yields hit all-time lows Friday, making U.S. Treasuries look relatively attractive, he adds.

Big institutional investors, like hedge funds, haven’t chased the market higher, says Seaburg. Instead, quantitatively managed funds and passive index funds have driven the latest rally.

Brexit was an excuse for profit-taking, says Steve Massocca, portfolio manager for Wedbush Equity Management. He doesn’t see a possible U.K. exit affecting the U.S. much, “but given how much and given how fast the market had risen recently, it was a good excuse to take profits.”

Marketfield’s Shaoul says U.S. stocks’ inability to break through previous highs isn’t particularly worrisome short- term. Eventually, however, if the market isn’t able to get through, it will become an issue, says Shaoul, who puts an important S&P 500 support level at around 2085.

Since February 2015, each of the past eight times that the S&P 500 approached the 2130 level, “it has rolled over,” says Massocca. He calls this range top the “valuation ceiling,” where earnings growth isn’t enough to get stocks higher “but the Fed’s low monetary policy protects on the downside.” The Fed isn’t likely to raise interest rates this week, he adds.

(Source: Barrons Online)