Heads Up!

A flip-flop for those who commute across the Delaware River.  Several months ago, we informed Pennsylvanians who work in New Jersey, and vice-versa, about a change occurring effective 1/1/2017 which we thought would end the “Reciprocal Agreement”. But, last week, Governor Christie of NJ announced the change will not occur after all.  Christie’s move reverses notice he had given to Pennsylvania of his intention to end the nearly 40-year-old tax pact with the commonwealth on Jan. 1.  The agreement prevents Pennsylvania residents who work in New Jersey from paying income taxes to the Garden State and vice versa. Ending it would have forced commuters to pay income taxes to both states, with a credit against what they owe to their home state based on what they paid to the state where they work.

The “Heat Map”

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending. This category’s grade will improve if and when the Trump legislation is passed.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated A (very favorable). The Trump victory’s impact on the FED is not yet known. However, Trump made it clear during the campaign he did not have confidence in the present FED Chairperson.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is rated a B- (above average). Trump’s goal is a 4% growth rate for the U.S. economy. This will increase business profits significantly.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 4. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The Numbers

Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks increased, but Bonds declined. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS.

Returns through 11-25-2016

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

-.2

2.3

2.1

2.7

2.4

4.3

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

1.4

10.4

8.3

9.4

16.3

6.9

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

1.3

-2.1

-3.3

-2.0

7.3

.9

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.  This week Laurie will discuss:

“Expected 2017 tax changes as you plan for year end 2016”

Laurie will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week.  Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie.  This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area– or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet.  For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org. 

The Markets This Week

Market action during the Thanksgiving-shortened trading week indicated that the postelection rally is no turkey.

Indeed, it has legs. Wings, even.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose every day last week, and both were up for the third consecutive week, hitting new records. The Dow jumped 284 points, or 1.5%, to 19152.14. The S&P 500 rose 31 points to 2213.35. The Nasdaq Composite also rose 1.5% to a new record.

The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-caps, has been on an absolute tear, rising 15.8% in three weeks. On Friday, it clocked a 15-day winning streak.

The market is pricing in a near-certainty of faster gross-domestic-product growth next year, says David Waddell, chief investment strategist at Memphis-based Waddell & Associates. If the current trend is for GDP growth of about 2.8%, “that could go to 4.5% pretty quickly,” he adds. “That’s why there’s so much euphoria. We’ve seen big piles of cash coming into the market. People were so terrified of the election, and now all of that cash is coming back in a hurry. That’s why the market’s not going down, because everybody’s buying every dip now.”

But isn’t that euphoria usually a red flag?

“Do not underestimate the value and amplifier of animal spirits,” Wadell says. “Animal spirits, once unleashed, can be pretty superfantastic economic additives.”

And then, in the style of President-elect Donald J. Trump, he exclaims: “It’s gonna be yuge!”

Despite the rally in the Russell 2000, Waddell continues to like small-cap stocks. Small-cap value names tend to do well during periods of high growth and low taxes, he notes, pointing to the disproportionately large rally among those stocks in the early 1980s. Small-caps benefit the most from tax cuts because they don’t have an army of accountants that can reduce their tax bills.

A cut of six to seven percentage points in corporate tax rates should result in a 10% increase in earnings per share for small-caps, notes Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede. And Trump has called for a lot more than that—a decrease in rates to 15% from 35%. “The rally in small-caps is more than justified,” he says.  Waddell’s sense of bullishness is widespread. But not everyone has given up looking for the brake. Jeff Carbone, co-founder of Cornerstone Financial Partners, says the influx of cash at this stage of the rally has begun to make him cautious.

“My fear is people are trying to chase,” he says. “You can see by the inflows that people are starting to think they’re going to miss something.” Sometimes those animal spirits can lead to misconceptions.  Beyond financials, which could benefit from higher interest rates and a rollback in regulations, investors have been making bullish bets on health care, on expectations of changes in regulations and a rollback of Obamacare, and industrials, which could benefit from infrastructure spending.

Tech stocks, which had struggled immediately after the election, rebounded last week. Facebook (FB) rose 2.9% and Amazon.com (AMZN) was up 2.7%. And utilities got a bit of a reprieve after falling since the election; the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) rose 1.9% on the week.

Precious metals continued to fall, however, belying pre-election expectations that investors would buy gold to hedge against uncertainty. Gold futures dropped 2.5% last week to $1,178.20 per ounce.

The coming week could help determine the path of the market in December. On Friday, the government will release November jobs data, giving investors more clarity on whether the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates.

(Source: Barrons Online)

Heads Up!

FIRST 100 DAYS:

During the campaign, Trump released an outline detailing his plans for his first 100 days in office. Within the “100 day plan presentation,” Trump listed several tax proposals to immediately work with Congress on enacting:

  • The Middle Class Tax Relief and Simplification Act—According to Trump, the legislation would provide middle class families with two children a 35 percent tax cut and lower the “business tax rate” from 35 percent to 15 percent. During the campaign, Trump described the plan as “an economic plan designed to grow the economy 4 percent per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification.”
    * Click here to jump to details at the bottom of this post.
  • Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act — A proposal described by Trump during the campaign that would allow individuals to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivize employers to provide on-site childcare and create tax-free savings accounts for children and elderly dependents.
  • Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act — A proposal made by Trump during the campaign to fully repeal the ACA.
  • American Energy & Infrastructure Act—A proposal described by Trump during the campaign that “leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years.”

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS: In summary, the legislative plan outlined above is good for stock prices. Not so for bonds. It is likely interest rates will rise and the magnitude of the increase could be substantial.  When interest rates rise, the value of bonds you already own go down. It is important to reduce holdings of long term maturity bonds or mutual funds which hold this type of bond.

IMPORTANT DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW:

Trump’s Win Expected to Bring Tax Law Changes

INDIVIDUAL TAXATION

Income Tax
During the campaign, Trump proposed to compress into only three tax brackets the current seven tax brackets, which currently tops out at 39.6 percent. Trump’s proposal would reduce rates on ordinary income to 12, 25, and 33 percent.

Comment
Trump’s tax plan for three-bracket tax rate structure of 12, 25, and 33 mirrors the House GOP Tax Reform Blueprint released in June 2016. Trump has not specified the income levels within which each bracket percentage would fall.

Under Trump’s plan, the standard deduction would increase to $15,000 for single individuals and to $30,000 for married couples filing jointly. In contrast, the 2017 standard deduction amounts under current law are $6,350 and $12,700, respectively, as adjusted for inflation.

Trump also proposed during the campaign to implement a cap on the amount of itemized deductions that could be claimed at $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for married couples filing jointly. Additionally, according to campaign materials, all personal exemptions would be eliminated, as would the head of household filing status.

PROJECTED IMPACT.

One result of increasing the standard deduction would likely be to reduce the number of taxpayers who itemize deductions.

Capital Gains/Dividends
The current rate structure for capital gains would apparently remain unchanged under Trump’s plan. Trump presumably would also retain the same rates for qualified dividend income. However, Trump has proposed to repeal the 3.8 percent net investment income (NII) tax imposed on passive income, including capital gains.

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX RATES
Current Rates Trump/GOP Rates Joint Filers: Blueprint Single Filers: Blueprint
10% 15% 0%/12% up to $75,300 up to $37,650
25% & 28% 25% up to $231,450 up to $190,150
33%, 35% & 39.6% 33% above $231,450 above $190,150

PROJECTED IMPACT.

The current capital gains rate structure, imposed based upon income tax brackets, would presumably be realigned to fit within Trump’s proposed percent income tax bracket levels.

Estate and Gift Tax
During the campaign, Trump proposed to repeal the federal estate and gift tax. The unified federal estate and gift tax kicks in at $5.490 million for 2017 (essentially double at $10.980 million for married individuals),

PROJECTED IMPACT.

During the campaign, Trump also added to estate and gift tax repeal a proposal that would disallow “stepped up basis” to shelter otherwise taxable gains of more than $10 million under the income tax. Currently, any asset that passes through an estate receives a tax basis equal to date of death value, a significant tax advantage when the asset is eventually sold by heirs. Trumps plan would appear to provide exemptions for small businesses and family farms.

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
During the campaign, Trump proposed to eliminate the alternative minimum tax (AMT).

Comment
National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson has recommended Congress permanently repeal the AMT. Although it serves as a revenue source, significant tax reform would likely present other options to offset the cost of elimination.

Net Investment Income (NII) Tax
During the campaign, Trump proposed to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Repeal of the ACA would include repeal of the 3.8 percent net investment income (NII) tax.

Childcare Tax Benefits
Trump proposed during the campaign to create a new deduction for child and dependent care expenses, as well as increasing the earned income tax credit (EITC) for working parents who would otherwise not qualify for the deduction. Trump’s plan, as explained during his campaign, would provide:

  • “Spending rebates” to lower-income families for childcare expenses through the EITC. “The rebate would be equal to a certain percentage of remaining eligible childcare expenses, subject to a cap of half of the payroll taxes paid by the taxpayer,” according to campaign materials.
  • “Above-the-line” deductions for child and elder care expenses, for qualified taxpayers with income up to certain thresholds.

Trump also proposed during the campaign to create Dependent CARE Savings Accounts (DCSAs), tax-favored savings accounts for children, including unborn children, and dependent care expenses, which would be matched by a government contribution. The savings accounts would have an annual contribution limit. Trump’s plan would also expand the credit for employer-provided child care.

Carried Interest
Trump proposed during the campaign to tax carried interest as ordinary income.

PROJECTED IMPACT.

Private equity partners have been taxed at 20 percent, the current top rate for capital gains.

BUSINESS TAXATION

Corporate Income Tax
During the campaign, Trump proposed to lower the business tax rate to 15 percent and eliminate the corporate alternative minimum tax.

Comment
The top corporate income tax rate is currently 35 percent.

Small Businesses
Trump’s campaign materials about how pass-through entities (sole proprietorships, partnerships, and S corporations) would be taxed are broad-brush. Generally, Trump’s campaign materials indicate that the owners of pass-through entities could elect to be taxed at a flat rate of 15 percent on their pass-through income retained within the business, rather than be taxed under regular individual income tax rates (the top individual rate would be 33 percent under Trump’s plan).

PROJECTED IMPACT.

This plan would appear to give a business quasi-corporate status in being able to be taxed at a new 15 percent corporate tax rate until assets are distributed. Upon distribution, a second layer of tax would be imposed similar to dividends now taxed to C Corporation shareholders.

Comment
Trump’s campaign materials also indicated a consideration of rules that would prevent pass-through owners from converting their compensation income taxed at higher rates into profits taxed at the 15 percent level.

Business Tax Incentives
According to campaign materials, unspecified “corporate tax expenditures” would be eliminated, except for the Research and Development (R&D) credit, in exchange for a lower corporate tax rate.

Section 179 expensing
Specifically directed toward small businesses, Trump during the campaign indicated that he would increase the annual cap on Section 179 expensing from $500,000 to $1 million.

Childcare credit for businesses
During the campaign, Trump proposed to increase the annual cap for the business tax credit for on-site childcare. Additionally, the recapture period would be reduced.

Manufacturing expensing
In lieu of deducting interest expenses, Trump proposed during the campaign that manufacturing firms would be able to immediately deduct all new investments in the business.

HEALTHCARE RELATED TAXES

Trump proposed throughout the campaign to “repeal and replace Obamacare,” the Affordable Care Act (ACA), entirely, including all associated taxes. Trump’s campaign materials, however, only mention repealing the ACA’s 3.8 percent NII tax.

Comment
During the campaign, Trump indicated that he would call a special session of Congress to repeal the ACA.

Cadillac tax. Under current law, the so-called “Cadillac tax” on high dollar health insurance plans is scheduled to go into effect in 2020. Trump has not mentioned this tax specifically but repeal of the ACA would presumably include repeal of the “Cadillac tax.”

Medical device tax. As part of ACA repeal, Trump’s plan would apparently envision repeal of the medical device tax.

Comment
Repeal of the ACA would also bring about repeal of the individual shared responsibility requirement, the employer shared responsibility requirement, the Code Sec. 36B premium assistance tax credit, the Health Care Marketplace, the SHOP Marketplace, and more.

INTERNATIONAL

During the campaign, Trump indicated that one direct result of lowering the corporate income tax rate would be to make US companies more competitive worldwide, as well as keep US companies onshore.

Repatriation
During the campaign, Trump proposed to provide a deemed repatriation of corporate profits held offshore at a “one-time” reduced tax rate.

SOURCE: Commerce Clearing House

The “Heat Map”

Most of the time, the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” which support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.

CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is A- (very favorable). Favorable activity in the housing market continues to support growth in the level of spending. This category’s grade will improve if and when the Trump legislation is passed.

THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: This factor is rated A (very favorable). The Trump victory’s impact on the FED is not yet known. However, Trump made it clear during the campaign he did not have confidence in the present FED Chairperson.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is rated a B- (above average). Trump’s goal is a 4% growth rate for the U.S. economy. This will increase business profits significantly.

OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 4. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The Numbers

Last week, U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks increased, but Bonds declined. During the last 12 months, STOCKS outperformed BONDS (this represents a change).

Returns through 11-11-2016

1-week

Y-T-D

1-Year

3-Years

5-Years

10-Years

Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index

-1.5

3.6

3.7

3.3

2.6

4.5

US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500

3.9

7.9

6.6

9.2

13.8

6.9

Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries

.1

-1.8

-3.1

-1.4

5.3

1.0

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

“Your Financial Choices”

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®.  This week Laurie will discuss: “Who, what, why, when, where and how of estate planning”

Laurie will take your calls on these topics and other inquiries this week.  Questions may be submitted early through www.yourfinancialchoices.com by clicking Contact Laurie.  This show will be broadcast at the regular time. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and Phillipsburg area– or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet.  For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.