The U.S. stock market has jumped since the November 8th election. Let’s identify and track the 4 initiatives upon which the U.S. stock market is speculating will be successfully accomplished early in the Trump administration.
The 4 initiatives will have a tremendous influence on the “Heat Map” which forms the basis of our forward looking view of the U.S. economy. We consider the success or failure of the 4 initiatives to be “leading” indicators for the Heat Map.
Below are the 4 Trump administration initiatives upon which the stock market is speculating and what progress, if any, has been made:
- Tax cuts and tax reforms benefiting most individuals and businesses- NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
- Infrastructure spending of up to $1 Trillion over the upcoming 7 to 10 years. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
- Affordable Care Act amendment, reform or reorganization. BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE TOOK THE FIRST STEPS TO REPEAL THE ACT. NO REPLACEMENT HAS BEEN FINALIZED. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 5%
- Roll back of government regulations and Executive Orders considered to be difficult for businesses. NO PROGRESS RECENTLY. HEARINGS AND CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL (OR NOT) ON TRUMP APPOINTEES FORMS A LITMUS TEST FOR FUTURE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. CUMULATIVE PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL: 0%
As the action happens in Washington on these 4 initiatives, don’t be surprised if the political “tug and pull” contest results in a wilder than normal stock and bond market.
We will continue to report in future issues on the progress on each initiative.