The Number & “Heat Map”

Posted on March 27, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

THE NUMBERS

Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac

US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP

The health of the US economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

CONSUMER SPENDING	A+	Consumer spending is expected to strengthen as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.
FED POLICIES	C-	The Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% last week, and is expected to implement at least 2 more hikes this year. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY	A-	4th quarter earnings season was stellar, with S&P profits growing at a fast pace. Q1 2018 earnings season starts in just a few short weeks.
EMPLOYMENT	A+	The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.1%, the lowest reading since 2000. The economy added 313,000 new jobs in February, a very strong number.
INFLATION	B	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.
OTHER CONCERNS
INTERNATIONAL RISKS	5	The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

Valley National Financial Advisors, and its family of companies, has been in the Lehigh Valley since 1985. The company is independent and locally owned. As a respected and trusted organization, our relationships with many clients and their families transcend generations. We have the expertise to provide clients with financial strategies to effectively manage their existing assets and to provide for the eventual transfer of their wealth.

Our one-stop service model includes: Financial Planning – Investment Management – Estate Planning – Retirement Planning – Education Planning – Tax Planning & Preparation – Insurance Planning – Trust Services, offered as a Trust Representative Office of National Advisors Trust Company, FSB – ExecutiveEdgeTM, Personal Financial Planning for Corporate Leaders. Our services are provided by a team of objective professionals and managed by one contact person – your personal financial advisor.

Valley National Financial Advisors is proud home of the Lehigh Valley’s most CFP® – Certified Financial Planner Professionals^TM. Among other honors, Valley National has been voted Best Financial Planner in the Lehigh Valley seven times by the readers of Lehigh Valley Magazine, and ranked among FA Magazine’s Top RIAs and AdvisorOne’s Top Wealth Managers.

For more than years, our firm has been devoted to helping our clients to achieve their hopes, dreams and aspirations. This requires a delicate balance between the science of financial planning and the art of understanding the feelings and emotions of our clients and their families.

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