Valley National Financial Advisors is pleased to announce the promotion of Joseph F. Goldfeder, CFP® to Vice President. Joe is a Financial Advisor working out of the firm’s Bethlehem headquarters.
Joe is a Certified Financial Planner™ professional, Investment Adviser Representative with Valley National Advisers, Inc., Registered Representative with Valley National Investments, Inc., and Licensed Insurance Agent in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Joe has been part of the Valley National team for 12 years. READ MORE
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac
US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP
The health of the US economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.
CONSUMER SPENDING
A+
Consumer spending is expected to remain healthy as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.
FED POLICIES
C-
Following its June meeting, the Federal Reserve implemented the second rate hike of 2018, and suggested that two more hikes should be expected before year-end. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY
A
Just over 50% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q2 earnings, and Factset is reporting a blended earnings growth rate of 21.3% YoY.
EMPLOYMENT
A+
The US economy added 213,000 new jobs in June, and the labor force participation rate is now on the rise. Jobs are available for those who want them.
INFLATION
B
Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.
OTHER CONCERNS
INTERNATIONAL RISKS
5
The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.
Financial Checklist for New Dads and Moms by Michael A. Ippoliti, MBA, CFP®, Vice President
1) Make sure your child has a Social Security number.
If you checked “yes” and supplied the appropriate information when applying for your baby’s birth certificate, the Social Security number should be on its way. If for some reason you didn’t, you can apply at an SSA office, but you’ll have to provide proof of your child’s U.S. citizenship, age and identity, as well as your own identity.
2) Get health insurance right away. If you have insurance through your work, notify your employer as soon as your child is born. In the meantime, review your options to make sure you have the best combination of deductibles and coverage.
3) Evaluate Your Emergency Reserve An emergency fund is always important and more than ever when you have a child. Strive to have enough cash in an easily accessible account to cover three-to-six months of necessary expenses.
4) Create a will and Powers of Attorney for financial and health decisions Even if you don’t have a lot of assets, a will is essential to name a guardian for your child. It doesn’t have to be a complicated document, but I’d suggest consulting with your family attorney. If it’s not in writing, the state could decide who would care for your child.
5) Start saving for education. Everyone thinks about the enormous cost of college, but what if you want to send your child to private elementary or high school? Fortunately, with the new tax law, 529 accounts can now be used for all three with certain limitations. A 529 is a great, tax-advantaged way to save—and provides an easy, tax-smart way for grandparents to chip in as well.
“We do not need magic to change the world, we carry all the power we need inside ourselves already; we have the power to imagine better.”– J.K. Rowling
by Connor Darrell, Head of Investments Markets (and politicians) were given reason to cheer on Friday as the first (of three) Q2 GDP estimate(s) showed a 4.1% annualized rate of economic growth, closely in line with expectations. U.S. equities (as measured by the S&P 500) moved slightly higher on the week but underperformed their international counterparts which benefitted from an apparent easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union. Bond yields inched higher, and the 10-year treasury is now close to re-testing the psychologically important 3% mark.
More than 50% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q2 earnings, and while there have been some high-profile disappointments (Facebook, Exxon Mobil), Factset is reporting a blended earnings growth rate of 21.3%. We expect strong earnings growth to continue for the rest of 2018, as the benefit of tax reform continues to inflate year over year comparisons.
Breaking Down GDP Four percent GDP growth is an excellent headline number and is the highest year over year growth rate in U.S. GDP since 2014. Under the hood, the key drivers of increased growth in Q2 were American consumers, who bounced back strongly following a disappointing first quarter that was likely impacted by bad weather. All data seems to suggest that consumption (the largest component of GDP measurement) is quite healthy. And while not a component of GDP, M&A activity in 2018 is at an all-time high as businesses are digging into their deeper pockets to make strategic acquisitions. That businesses (who typically take a long-term, forward-looking view when making decisions) are willing to take risks in executing mergers and acquisitions is a positive sign for the U.S. economy.
Looking forward however, there are reasons to expect GDP growth to return to more modest levels. Late in the economic cycle and with unemployment already at very low levels, it is unlikely that consumer spending will be able to continue leading growth forward for a lot longer. Additionally, rising housing prices and higher mortgage rates are likely to begin eating into housing demand. All told, the U.S. economy is one of the healthiest in the developed world, but it is unlikely that we have ushered in a new era of explosive economic growth.
The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie welcomes Attorney Dennis Pappas from the Law Offices of Vasiliadis Pappas Associates to discuss: “All About Probate – What happens after I die?”
Laurie and her guest will take your calls on this or other topics at 610-758-8810 during the live show, or anytime online via yourfinancialchoice.com.
Recordings of past shows are available to listen or download at both yourfinancialchoice.com and wdiy.org.
Valley National Financial Advisors is pleased to announce the promotion of Joseph F. Goldfeder, CFP® to Vice President. Joe is a Financial Advisor working out of the firm’s Bethlehem headquarters.
The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie welcomes Attorney Dennis Pappas from the Law Offices of Vasiliadis Pappas Associates to discuss: “All About Probate – What happens after I die?”