The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on August 7, 2018 by The Weekly Commentary

THE NUMBERS

Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac

US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP
The health of the US economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

CONSUMER SPENDING	A+	Consumer spending is expected to remain healthy as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.
FED POLICIES	C-	Following its June meeting, the Federal Reserve implemented the second rate hike of 2018, and suggested that two more hikes should be expected before year-end. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY	A	Just over 50% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q2 earnings, and Factset is reporting a blended earnings growth rate of 21.3% YoY.
EMPLOYMENT	A+	The US economy added 213,000 new jobs in June, and the labor force participation rate is now on the rise. Jobs are available for those who want them.
INFLATION	B	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.
OTHER CONCERNS
INTERNATIONAL RISKS	5	The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

Valley National Financial Advisors, and its family of companies, has been in the Lehigh Valley since 1985. The company is independent and locally owned. As a respected and trusted organization, our relationships with many clients and their families transcend generations. We have the expertise to provide clients with financial strategies to effectively manage their existing assets and to provide for the eventual transfer of their wealth.

Our one-stop service model includes: Financial Planning – Investment Management – Estate Planning – Retirement Planning – Education Planning – Tax Planning & Preparation – Insurance Planning – Trust Services, offered as a Trust Representative Office of National Advisors Trust Company, FSB – ExecutiveEdgeTM, Personal Financial Planning for Corporate Leaders. Our services are provided by a team of objective professionals and managed by one contact person – your personal financial advisor.

Valley National Financial Advisors is proud home of the Lehigh Valley’s most CFP® – Certified Financial Planner Professionals^TM. Among other honors, Valley National has been voted Best Financial Planner in the Lehigh Valley seven times by the readers of Lehigh Valley Magazine, and ranked among FA Magazine’s Top RIAs and AdvisorOne’s Top Wealth Managers.

For more than years, our firm has been devoted to helping our clients to achieve their hopes, dreams and aspirations. This requires a delicate balance between the science of financial planning and the art of understanding the feelings and emotions of our clients and their families.

Meet Our Team of Experienced, Highly Educated Professionals

Securities offered through Valley National Investments, Inc. Member FINRA SIPC. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), Morgan Stanley EAFE Developed Countries, and the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index are an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative, in general, of the US stock market, the foreign stock market, and the US bond market, respectively. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended to be investment advice or to predict future performance. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Valley National does not purchase content for its newsletter from outside supplier/vendors. Valley National is in compliance with the current registration and/or notice-filing requirements imposed upon SEC registered investment advisers by those states in which Valley National maintains clients. Advisors of Valley National may only transact business in those states in which they are registered, or qualify for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The Valley National newsletter, The Weekly Commentary, is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to investment advisory and financial planning services and other general information it believes would be of interest to its clients and friends. Nothing in this newsletter shall be construed as offering or disseminating specific financial, retirement, estate, asset protection, tax, and/or legal advice. Nothing in this newsletter shall be construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy securities. Nothing contained in this newsletter shall be construed as creating a planner client relationship by virtue of your access to this newsletter. Readers should not rely solely on any information contained herein to plan your estate, or invest your assets, or plan for your income taxes, or make any other financial planning decision. All trademarks and logos appearing herein are those of their respective owners. Information throughout this newsletter is obtained from sources which we and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither we nor our information providers shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the reader. Copyright © 2019, Valley National Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved.