Daily Archives: September 11, 2018

Valley National News

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Valley National Financial Advisors welcomes Simone Sanvito as the firm’s newest Associate. Simone graduated from Hofstra University in Long Island with a Bachelor of Business Administration as a double major in Finance & Accounting.

Simone will work out of Valley National’s Bethlehem office where he will be completing exams required in the financial services industry while learning about the business and assisting with important projects.

“Simone completed two summer internships with us, so he is already familiar with our team and some of our processes,” says Matthew Petrozelli, CEO. “During his time with us, he demonstrated the talent, passion and dedication that our client-first culture requires.”

Originally from Arcore, Italy, Simone came to the United States in 2011 as a high school exchange student and later moved to Long Island, New York to attend Hofstra University. Having visited the Lehigh Valley frequently in recent years, Simone chose to relocate and establish his career in Bethlehem.

He is currently pursuing a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) certification and is also interested in a CFP® (Certified Financial Planner™) designation in the future.

Outside of work and education, Simone’s passion for the past 10 years has been playing the drums. He is also a soccer fan and his favorite team is A.C. Milan.

Simone Sanvito can be reached at ssanvito@valleynationalgroup.com or 610-868-9000 x132.

FOR OUR CLIENTS

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Last year we launched a web pay option for tax preparation billing. We are pleased to announce that this convenient online payment system is now available for all of your Valley National Financial Advisors invoices.*

It is as easy as 1, 2, 3 to view your invoice and pay it with a credit card or direct from a bank account via QuickBooks. Our website has a quick reference guide so you know what to expect: http://www.valleynationalgroup.com/webpay

Ask your service team about all of our secure and simple payment options. Please use the method of payment that is most convenient for you – online, in person, over the phone, by mail.

*Asset Management fees are automatically deducted from accounts and are not included in invoices payable online.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

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THE NUMBERS

Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac

US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP
The health of the US economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A+

Consumer spending is expected to remain healthy as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve held pat following its most recent meeting, but it remains probable that two more rate hikes will be implemented before year-end. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

A

Factset is reporting a blended earnings growth rate of 20% YoY for the 2nd quarter of 2018. Tax reform has played a major role, but the strength of the US consumer is boosting corporate profits as well. 80% of US companies have reported positive EPS surprises (meaning actual earnings were higher than forecasts).

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 201,000 new jobs in August and the unemployment rate remained below 4%. The job market remains very healthy.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Markets This Week

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by Connor Darrell, Head of Investments
Stocks trended lower last week with U.S.-China trade tensions again taking the blame for the market’s weakness. Friday brought news that the U.S. economy added a higher than expected 201,000 jobs in August, causing interest rates to jump higher amid speculation that the Fed would be more likely to keep its current pace of rate hikes. Internationally, the uncertainty surrounding global trade has made it difficult for companies to make investment decisions and has weighed on stocks. International stock markets (in both developed and emerging countries) were down close to 3%.

Preparing for the Next Storm
With many on the eastern seaboard bracing for the impacts of Hurricane Florence, it seems appropriate to evaluate what investors can be doing to prepare their portfolios for the next storm in financial markets. In the tenth year of a healthy bull market, the action plan for many investors should simply be to rebalance and re-evaluate their changing goals. A global investor who has remained disciplined throughout the last 10 years is likely to now be overweight stocks relative to bonds, and overweight U.S. equities relative to international equities simply as a result of how market returns have been distributed over that time. As a result, that same portfolio is likely to contain more risk (as a result of the higher allocation to stocks) than it did 10 years ago despite the investor being 10 years closer to retirement (which would typically call for a more conservative portfolio). As bond yields continue to creep higher, the rebalancing required to bring a portfolio back to its target allocation is likely to become easier to stomach since the relative income from bonds will be more favorable.

“Your Financial Choices”

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The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie and her guest Joseph F. Goldfeder, CFP® Vice President at Valley National Financial Advisors, will discuss a “Retirement Plan Checkup.”

Laurie and Joe will take your calls on this or other topics at 610-758-8810 during the live show, or via yourfinancialchoices.com. Recordings of past shows are available to listen or download at both yourfinancialchoices.com and wdiy.org.