We’re Moving! Our New Jersey office is relocating on November 1, 2018.
Currently at 825 Belvidere Road, our team is moving just a little more than a mile away to 420 Coventry Drive, Phillipsburg, NJ 08865. Our entire firm is excited about the new space, and we look forward to welcoming you to visit us.
Regular office hours at this location will remain Mondays and Fridays from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. and Wednesdays from noon to 4 p.m. The New Jersey service team is available from our Bethlehem headquarters on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Wednesday mornings. If you would like to make an appointment, please call 908-454-1000.
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac
US ECONOMIC HEAT MAP
The health of the US economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we grade 5 key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.
CONSUMER SPENDING
A+
Consumer spending is expected to remain healthy as individuals with lower tax rates spend their windfalls.
FED POLICIES
C-
In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY
A
Factset is reporting a blended earnings growth rate of 20% YoY for the 2nd quarter of 2018. Tax reform has played a major role, but the strength of the US consumer is boosting corporate profits as well. Q3 earnings season is now underway, and the results reported thus far suggest a continuation of that trend.
EMPLOYMENT
A+
The US economy added 134,000 new jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.7%; the lowest level since 1969. The job market remains very healthy.
INFLATION
B
Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.
OTHER CONCERNS
INTERNATIONAL RISKS
5
The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.
The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.
Senior Vice President Laurie A. Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP® authored an article for the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) CPA Now Blog regarding Unclaimed and Abandoned U.S. Savings Bonds for PA residents.
A recent notice to Pennsylvania residents regarding U.S. savings bonds appeared in local publications. The alert informed bond owners of a suit Pennsylvania was filing to take title to abandoned, unclaimed, and matured savings bonds. READ THE FULL ARTICLE
by Connor Darrell, Head of Investments Equity markets ended a bumpy week relatively flat after a strong rally on Tuesday was offset by Thursday’s selloff. A variety of geopolitical concerns – including the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi while in Saudi custody – weighed on investors’ minds. Bonds trended lower after the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, which suggested that policymakers expect to continue raising interest rates and would consider pushing them into “restrictive” territory in an effort to keep the economy from overheating.
The Fed Isn’t Going “Loco”
President Trump has made it no secret that he disapproves of the Federal Reserve’s decision to carry on with a steady pace of interest rate increases. It’s not surprising that a sitting president, who’s legacy is likely to be closely tied to the performance of the economy under his watch, would be opposed to monetary policy decisions designed to slow the growth of the U.S. economy. What is surprising however, is that he would express that opinion so publicly. In an interview this month, the President stated that he believes the Fed is “going loco” and is “out of control”.
There are a couple of things to keep in mind about the Fed’s job. The Fed’s primary function is to keep the economy from reaching extremes. That involves stepping in to reduce the pain during recession as well as keeping the economy from overheating during periods of expansion. The latter task is arguably even more important, because the worst economic periods throughout history have all been preceded by excessive risk taking and asset bubbles, which typically form during the latter stages of a bull market. Looking through the lens of history, the current interest rate environment can still be reasonably considered to be accommodative for economic growth, and the Fed will likely continue its pace of gradual rate hikes. All of this should be well understood by financial markets and should not lead to a sharp fall in stock or bond prices on its own.
The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie will not be live on the air. WDIY will broadcast a prerecorded show where Laurie discusses: Cybersecurity & Identity Theft.
Questions will be addressed during the next live show on Wednesday, October 31. Recordings of past shows are available to listen or download at both yourfinancialchoices.com and wdiy.org.
Currently at 825 Belvidere Road, our team is moving just a little more than a mile away to 420 Coventry Drive, Phillipsburg, NJ 08865. Our entire firm is excited about the new space, and we look forward to welcoming you to visit us.
