Daily Archives: August 25, 2020

VNFA Announces Promotions, Including Two Financial Advisors

Posted on by

Valley National Financial Advisors (VNFA) promoted five team members, including Ryan Mulhearn, CIMA and Michael Warch to the position of Assistant Vice President / Financial Advisor.

Rob Ziobro and Ashley Santiago have been promoted to Assistant Vice Presidents of Technology and Human Resources respectively. Simone Sanvito has been promoted to Senior Associate as part of the firm’s Entry-Level Professional (ELP) program.

Ryan joined the team in 2017 and Mike in 2018, both with several years of industry experience. Since then, they have each mentored with senior members of the team and worked to support clients with their financial planning, tax and wealth management needs.

Ryan and Mike will continue to work collaboratively with their VNFA service teams in addition to managing client relationships as full-time Financial Advisors.

Rob joined VNFA in 2012 for a part-time role that quickly developed into a full-time position. He has most recently served as Director of Technologies, supporting the infrastructure and driving innovation across the firm’s three offices.

Ashley was hired as Director of Human Resources in 2018. She oversees all of the company’s recruiting, development, policies, benefits, training, and enhancements to the employee experience.

Simone was hired as an Associate through the VNFA ELP program in 2018 after completing two summer internships with the firm. The ELP program is designed to integrate entry level associates into the company’s business model giving them the skills, training, education and practice of foundations in financial planning, tax preparation, and investment management.

“Although 2020 has been a trying year for many businesses and individuals, we are so glad that VNFA has been able to keep our staff and clients safe while staying positioned to continue our growth,” said Matt Petrozelli, CEO. “Our client-first culture starts with having the right people in the right roles to serve our clients. These five are just a few examples of the excellence that I continue to see from my team in support of our firm’s mission and values.”

The Markets This Week

Posted on by

by Maurice (Mo) Spolan, Investment Research Analyst
The S&P 500 closed last week at an all-time high, which re-established a bull market, based on common definitions. The bellwether index eclipsed its February peak in just 126 trading days, which is 10 times faster than the average bear market recovery throughout history. The market bounce has been led by technology stocks, as exemplified by Apple, who, last week, became the first company ever to achieve a $2 trillion market capitalization. While technology companies have been largely unencumbered by the pandemic, CNBC reports that a majority – 62% – of stocks in the S&P 500 remain below their all-time highs. In particular, laggards are concentrated in sectors such as Financials, Energy, and Travel & Leisure, where the greatest economic damage is taking place. The S&P has been able to stage this recovery, despite many companies still struggling, because the index is market cap-weighted, which means that the largest companies have the greatest impact on the index’s price. Presently, the largest constituents are technology companies who, as noted, have benefited from the pandemic, economically speaking.

This phenomenon also helps to explain how the stock market can thrive while the broader economy contracts: the big tech companies have a much greater influence on the price of the S&P 500 than they do on economic output. To illustrate this point in broad strokes, consider that the combined revenue of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and Google amounts to less than 5% of U.S. GDP, while the market capitalizations of such companies account for over 20% of the S&P 500’s value. While U.S. GDP reflects the cumulative output of hundreds of thousands of small businesses, in addition to large technology companies, the stock market more closely tracks the performance of the very biggest corporations.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEGATIVE

 GDP declined at an annualized rate of 32.9% in Q2, the fourth-largest fall in the last 100 years. Although the figure is staggering, it was in-line with economists’ expectations. Retail sales increased 1.2% in July; a healthy mid-pandemic result, but sharply below June’s 7.5% rise.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

VERY NEGATIVE

 S&P 500 earnings have fallen by around 33% in Q2, the sharpest year-over-year decline since 2008.

EMPLOYMENT

VERY NEGATIVE

 1.8 million jobs were added in the U.S. during July. While gains, rather than losses, are welcomed, the figure represents a considerable deceleration from the 4.8 million jobs added in June. Unemployment remains very high at 10.2%.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Core inflation increased 0.6% in July, the largest one-month jump since 1991. However, on an annualized basis, CPI is running at a moderate 1.6%, below the Fed’s 2% target. More sustained indications of inflation will be necessary before the central bank curbs its stimulative policies.

FISCAL POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 In light of the expiration of federally granted, weekly unemployment support, and an absence of congressional progress towards the next round of stimulus, President Trump signed an executive order provisioning fiscal support. However, the legality of the order, and whether it will actually come into effect, are in question.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve has supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

 The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, was already weakened by the trade war but has deteriorated further as a result of COVID-19.

ECONOMIC RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

 The impacts from COVID-19 were as swift and pronounced as any shock in modern times. Robust monetary and fiscal stimulus stabilized the system, however, economic activity remains well-below that in 2019, and uncertainty remains high.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.