The U.S. stock market has not dropped 10% or more since 2011, an unusually long time period. If the stock declines 10% or more sometime this year, I suspect it will not be the direct result of the U.S. economy. Instead, it will probably be the result of something occurring outside of the U.S. – for example, an escalation in the situation in Iraq which endangers the flow of oil, causing a spike in gasoline prices and a set back to the U.S. economic recovery.

For this reason, I will be closely monitoring the situation in Iraq. The situation in Iraq is like a giant pile of spaghetti. It is very difficult to see exactly where this is heading. Guessing or conjecturing about the outcome will lead to speculation. Instead, in future communications, I intend to report on whether the situation in Iraq is getting worse or better.