Most of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars” that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: This grade is a B (favorable).
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: We continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset prices. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this Tuesday and Wednesday, but no action on interest rates is anticipated. Nevertheless, “expect investors to parse the Fed’s words closely,” says Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: This factor’s grade is a B– (slightly above average). This was raised this week because the first quarter’s profits were better than expected and the current quarter is looking promising.
OTHER CONCERNS: The “Heat Map” is indicating the U.S. stock market is in OK shape ASSUMING no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 2, the same as last week. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.