The Goldilocks economy is back. Soft job news Friday wasn’t enough to dent another big week for equities, with the major indexes setting new highs Friday—again. The continuing excitement has come on generally “just good enough” data from the U.S. economy, from second-quarter corporate earnings, and even from the jobs arena.
In many cases, bullish data—such as Thursday’s lower jobless-benefit filings—came with ancillary figures or revisions that undercut the trend, like Friday’s weaker-than-expected hiring data. Yet the combination didn’t set off investor fears the reports would sway the Federal Reserve Board to speed up an eventual withdrawal of monetary stimulus.
In general the economic figures “were nothing great, but nothing too bad,” says Dan Morgan, a portfolio manager at Synovus Trust.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose almost 100 points to 15,658.36, up 0.6%, a new high and up 19.5% this year. The S&P 500 index gained 18 to finish at 1709.67, also a record high, the 25th this year. The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite index jumped 2%, or 76 points, to 3689.59.
In the way of technical indicators, the market shows strong underpinnings: The number of stocks making new 52-week highs remains firm, those over their 50-day moving average hover around 80%, and breadth is strong.
It does seem as if the Goldilocks economy is back, says Stephen Massocca, a managing director at Wedbush Equity Management. Older readers remember that the 1995-1996 stock rally came amid U.S. domestic-product growth that was neither too fast to set off inflation fears nor too slow to ignite earnings-growth worry. “It’s a bumbling, stumbling recovery,” Massocca says of today’s U.S. economy. Investors are again wrestling with whether they want a stronger economy or not. Slower growth means the Fed’s punch bowl remains available but that corporate earnings increases, now a tepid 4%, could ease even more. Faster economic expansion would help profits—and therefore stocks—but investors fear the early withdrawal of central-bank stimulus, a big propellant of this year’s hefty gains (Source: Barrons Online).