Last week POSITIVE developments outweighed the NEGATIVE and the economy appears to be slowly improving.
Below is a succinct list of last week’s events:
Positives:
1) LTRO2 gives 530b more euros to European banks giving them cheap money, more time, chance to prefund ’12 maturities and play carry trade
2) Italian, Spanish bond yields fall again
3) Euro zone economic confidence up 1 pt, a touch better than expected
4) German consumer confidence rises to 1 yr high
5) US Initial Jobless Claims at 351k, lowest since Mar ’08
6) Vehicle sales reach 15mm for 1st time since Feb ’08
7) Consumer confidence jumps to best in a yr
8) Pending Home Sales rise another 2% to most since Apr ’10
9) Purchase apps gain 8.2% off last week’s lowest level since Oct
10) China’s state weighted mfr’g PMI rises to 5 month high at 51
Negatives:
1) LTRO2 take more than in Dec, banks still need help, dependency on ECB grows, what will happen in 2015 when 1T euros need to be returned to the ECB?
2) Portuguese bond yields rise, are they next problem child?
3) Euro zone unemployment rate rises to 10.7%, highest since 1997
4) Feb German jobs report a touch weaker than expected
5) Euro zone inflation remains sticky with Feb CPI up 2.7% y/o/y and Jan PPI up 3.7%
6) Jan US Durable Goods well below expectations, hangover from gov’t tax benefit?
7) CS home price index falls to lowest since Feb ’03
8) ISM mfr’g surprisingly weak with new orders, backlogs, production and employment all down while prices paid rise to highest since June
9) According to AAA, gasoline prices rise another .07 on the week and now up .30 over past month.
Source: The Big Picture