I am very concerned about a domino effect melt-down in Europe. I am NOT calling for a “SPECIAL ALERT” to sell, yet. But, I am close. I carefully monitor Italian, Spanish, and French government bond rates. Higher interest rates there are very bad for Europe and the U.S. Click here for more information.
No matter what Europe does, not matter
what Germany and France do, Europe is in for a lot of pain. Recession most
assuredly and likely a severe one, if not a depression. While I think that
eventually Germany allows the ECB to print, that is not a foregone conclusion.
From a European perspective, printing
money is a real problem, and for some countries an economic disaster. But
(selfishly) what the US and the rest of the world needs is for Europe not to
let its banking system implode. A recession will hurt exports, but Europe only
accounts for a little over 10% of US exports. Losing even 20% of that is a
problem, but not a disaster. What is a disaster is another 2008 banking crisis.
The US, while not robust, is in Muddle
Through mode. 2-3% growth is still growth. While not generating enough jobs to
really make a serious dent in unemployment, the economy is not making the
situation worse. But that could change. As I have written for two years, my
biggest concern is a European banking crisis coming to the US and the rest of
the world. And recent data suggests that the markets are beginning to share
that concern.
Credit spreads are rising, as is the
cost of interbank funding (Source: John Mauldin’s, “Thoughts From the
Frontlines”).