Pick a minute, any minute, say, between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. Chances are that 60 seconds later the stock market will be doing the exact opposite of what it was doing one minute prior. There probably won’t be a rhyme or reason, either.
There appears to be no end in sight to the gyrations that began in August—except for one thing: The speed of reversals seems to be increasing.
“The market feels like it’s being driven by the hour,” says Bernie McGinn, CEO of McGinn Investment Management. “The Greek debt problems have been in the news for a year now. How can it not be priced in? Who’s going to be surprised if they default?”
Yes, confusion reigns, but there’s one thing bears and bulls can agree on: Nobody makes steady money in a market that continually vacillates.
The market’s commitment issues make it a trader’s market. If you can’t trade nimbly, then you’d better have a strong stomach for volatility. It might be awhile before the market decides on the following issues, each of which continues to whipsaw investors moment by moment: euro-zone sovereign debt problems, a U.S. recession, a Chinese recession, weak banks, inflation, deflation and weak job numbers. These factors are like the dial on a diabolical, oscillating torture machine expressly made for investors, and each day the operator turns the dial to a new position.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,913.38 on Friday, down 2% on the day but up 1.3% from the previous Friday’s close. Nevertheless, it fell some 1,500 points, or 12%, in the just-ended third quarter and half that in September.
The Standard & Poor’s 500, meanwhile, fell 2.5% Friday, off 14% in the quarter and off 7% in September. The Nasdaq Composite finished at 2415, down 2.6% Friday, 2.7% on the week, 6.4% on the month and 13% for the quarter.
Some may draw solace—though not much—from history: The third quarter is typically the worst of the year. The one just ended was the weakest for the S&P 500 since 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Going back to 1928, the fourth quarter has been the strongest, though, with the S&P averaging a gain of 2.4%, and 4.6% in the past 20 years. Feel better? (Source: Barrons Online).