The following is a succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Indonesia, South Korea, Philippines and Malaysia back off from further rate hikes
2) Aug ISM services index unexpectedly rises
3) July Trade Deficit shrinks by $7b, exports rise to record high, Aug though likely different
4) China economic data eases pressure on PBOC to tighten further
Negatives:
1) Short term fiscal stimulus only lasts short term, we need permanent policy changes
2) Greece on verge of outright default as having difficulty meeting Bailout conditions. If were to occur, can it be contained? Likely not at first
3) European bank stress intensifies, euro basis swap widest since Dec ’08, 3 month euribor/OIS spread back at Mar ’09 levels
4) Canada and Australia both report unexpected job losses in Aug
5) Initial Jobless Claims 9k higher than expected at 414k
6) Even with a mortgage rate of just 4.23%, refinancing apps fall 6.3%, lower for a 3rd straight week and purchases rise just .2%