One consequence of instant information and faster trading is that global markets increasingly tend to move as one. And last week, that move was a step back from risk.

U.S. stocks suffered their second pullback in three weeks. The loss measured just 1.3%, but more alarming was the deteriorating momentum: On Thursday, all four major stock indexes fell below their 50-day moving averages. For the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite, this turn came after a remarkably determined string of nearly 130 consecutive sessions when the indexes always managed to rise above their trend lines. Thursday’s selloff came even as the market’s threat du jour—higher oil prices—eased. Asian and European stocks also retreated last week, and even gold ended a five-week winning run.

Don’t look now, but the three best-performing sectors so far in March are utilities, consumer staples and health care. What might worry this already antsy herd? Tempting as it is to blame investors’ apprehension on oil, the market’s swoon also worsened after the European Central Bank signaled its intention to hike interest rates soon. Yields spiked on bonds issued by several southern European countries; Moody’s downgraded Spain’s credit rating, and Michael Darda, MKM Partners’ chief market strategist, said Europe’s monetary policy, already too tight, “is about to get even tighter, with potentially devastating consequences.” The ECB’s balance sheet is expanding at a sluggish 2.6% pace, compared to 10% when the euro was born, and concerns are rising that higher rates now could choke off the Continent’s fragile recovery and worsen its budget woes.

With the onset of spring and the arrival of daylight-savings time, traders looking ahead also smell an uneasy end to the current easy-money regime. The Federal Reserve had been buying Treasuries and mortgage securities to hold down interest rates, but that $600 billion program will end in June. Expecting Treasury yields to rise later this year, the world’s biggest bond fund, the Pimco Total Return Fund, has already pared its holding of U.S. government debt to zero for the first time in three years.

It doesn’t help that Japan, the second-largest foreign buyer of U.S. debt, might now sell a portion of its $1 trillion stash in U.S. bills to help fund reconstruction after its worst earthquake on record. “Undoubtedly, Japan’s appetite for Treasury purchases will wane,” says Jack Ablin, Harris Private Bank’s chief investment officer. And without more buying by the Fed, treasury yields will likely rise in the second half.

Higher borrowing costs don’t automatically derail stocks, and may even signal a booming economy. But they’re more problematic when coupled with a bigger energy bill. In January, when unleaded gasoline was just $3 a gallon, gas-station purchases made up just 10.3% of the retail tab. Pump prices are now rising, and “history suggests that when gas purchases make up more than 10% of retail sales, consumers are forced to make the tough choice” of cutting back on some discretionary spending, Ablin notes.

Still, few expect the global recovery to unravel just yet. Stocks rebounded 0.7% Friday, and are off just 2.9% from the Feb. 18 peak, a sign that investors are watching and waiting.

The market’s momentum change bears watching. Bespoke Investment Group examined prior instances going back to 1971 when indexes slipped below their 50-day averages after more than 100 days above it. True to its momentum-sensitive nature, the Nasdaq went on to losses averaging 3.8% after a week, 5.6% after a month, and 4.7% after three months. In contrast, the S&P steadied itself and eked out gains averaging 1.1% a week later, 1.9% after a month and 2.1% after six months, perhaps because bargain hunters in the face of risk tend to browse first among big, quality stocks.

After dipping below 12,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Friday at 12,044, down 125, or 1%, on the week. The Nasdaq fell 69, or 2.5%, to 2716, while the Russell 2000 declined 22, or 2.7%, to 803. And crude oil pulled back 3.1% (Source: Barrons Online).