Stocks’ relentless levitation suffered a rare pause last week as tension in the Middle East sent crude-oil prices over $100 a barrel. But old habits die hard, and following a three-day selling jag, stocks rebounded Friday after Saudi Arabia raised output to quell concerns that a Libyan rebellion might disrupt oil supply.
The market’s loss last week came to just 1.7%, but that was enough to qualify as the biggest weekly loss in three months. Just as quickly, the horde of bullish investors shrank from 47% to 37%, the biggest one-week drop in—you guessed it—three months. In the short term, this fickle lot likely will continue taking its cue from the direction of oil prices. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s habitual upgrading of economic growth forecasts will be put on hold, at least for now.
Energy stocks jumped, and even before Friday were up 12.6% this year—nearly triple the 4.8% gain for the next-best group, industrials. In fact, the energy sector has rallied more than 40% over the past six months. Bespoke Investment Group analyzed the five prior instances since 1940 when energy stocks have had similarly big spurts. Historically, they’ve pulled back four out of five times to register an average decline of 2% a month later and were still down 1.1% after three months. This might suggest the benefits of rising oil prices are quickly priced in.
On the other hand, energy stocks trade at just 13.4 times projected earnings. That’s in line with the broad market, says Morgan Stanley, and growth expectations aren’t much more elevated compared with the overall market’s. And energy stocks benefit if oil keeps climbing. Who suffers if that happens? Typically, sectors with a high proportion of commodity costs but limited pricing power, like auto, retail, food and beverages and household products.
Crude ended last week up 9.1% at $98, and gold climbed to $1,409 a troy ounce. Despite a lift from Boeing (ticker: BA), the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its second loss in 13 weeks and closed down 261, or 2.1%, to 12,130. The Standard & Poor’s 500 snapped its three-week winning streak and fell 23 to 1320. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 53, or 1.9%, to 2781, while the Russell 2000 slipped 13, or 1.5%, to 822 (Source: Barrons Online).