The Domino Theory – 2011 Version (UPDATE)

OIL PRICES: Oil rose on concern over political contagion rather than a direct disruption to supply, according to Goldman

Last week I discussed what would be the effect on oil prices if Egypt’s revolution was the first of many in the Middle East? During this last week I reviewed a study my firm compiled several years ago involving a theoretical Iran/Israeli conflict scenario and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. I reviewed a list of energy companies who source their oil and natural gas outside the Persian Gulf and whose share price would be lifted if the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf were threatened. I am reporting back to you: these stocks have already surged due to higher oil prices. I have concluded that purchasing these stocks at their current price has a high level of risk (in the event Egypt and other Middle East countries’ unrest do not worsen). For this reason, we recommend not buying at this time- instead closely watch the developments within Egypt.  CLICK HERE  for one critical development to watch. 

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