The Economy




The economy continues to give us mixed signals.  Here is a detailed list of these signals:


Positives


1) Q4 Real final sales solid
2) Consumer confidence jumps, answers to job market questions improve
3) Pending home sales and new home sales bounce (but we don’t need new ones right now)
4) Germany consumer confidence at best since Oct ’07

Negatives


1) Real and Nominal GDP below forecasts, low deflator makes Real look better
2) Durable goods orders below expectations (but Nov revised up and core cap ex good)
3) Inflation expectations in Univ of Michigan  hit highest since Oct ’08
4) Case Shiller home price index falls to 8 month low
5) Japan debt downgraded by S&P as nation chokes on debt with no plan
6) UK consumer confidence near 2 yr low, Q4 GDP unexpectedly contracts
7) German import prices rise at fastest pace since ’81
8) Egypt erupts

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