“An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.”

– Friedrich Engels

The show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP . This week Laurie will discuss:





Personal Finance for Dummies
With author Eric Tyson




Laurie and Eric will take your calls on this subject and other financial planning topics at 610-758-8810. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton/Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville/Macungie area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s website www.yourfinancialchoices.com and visit www.wdiy.org.

The U.S. stock market almost stretched its rebound through a second straight week, but evidence of stalling job creation and quieter factories tested buyers’ resolve, and challenged the assumption that economic momentum will pick up anew in the fall.

Stocks began September under renewed selling pressure when a key manufacturing index shrank to 50.6 in August from 50.9 in July. A reading above 50 still points to expansion, and was far better than the contraction economists were expecting. But the wilting momentum was a cause for concern, and the expanding roster of contracting industrial sectors now includes those in Australia, Brazil, China, France, Italy, Korea, Russia, Spain, Taiwan and the U.K., while Germany and U.S. are approaching stall speed. Then on Friday, the U.S. Labor Department said job growth in August has slowed to nil for the first time in nearly a year, while the unemployment rate was stuck at 9.1%.

Lately, bulls have made much of the divergence between economic cues and sentiment readings: While the data show economic expansion slowing, consumer and business sentiment measures are far more dire and have plunged to depths typically seen in recessions. The implication is that Americans have overreacted to this summer’s U.S. debt-ceiling squabble and European debt crisis, and the panic surely will pass once we see the economy clawing its way back from the abyss. What this overlooks, however, is how crowd sentiment can shape behavior, persuading corporations to put off hiring and consumers to hold off big purchases.

So has the stock market sufficiently considered any economic deterioration still to come? At their lowest point this summer, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed at 1119 on Aug. 8, stocks were off 18% from their 2011 peaks—roughly two-thirds of the way toward the average peak-to-trough slide of 26% seen near recessions. All 500 of the components in the index fell that day, and declining traffic was a whopping 589 times heavier than the trickle of advancers. Ned Davis Research also counted five days in August when the horde of decliners was at least 10 times greater than advancers, and another five days when the exact opposite happened, a sure sign the market is groping for a bottom.

But while stocks have rebounded 5% from that low-water mark, momentum isn’t yet on the bulls’ side, and the S&P 500 is nearly 6% below its downward-sloping 50-day average. Bespoke Investment Group also analyzed stocks’ latest pop, between Aug. 22 to Aug. 31, and the results were hardly encouraging. While the average stock jumped 9.9% during that stretch, the 50 smallest stocks in the S&P 500 gained 12.7%, while the 50 biggest rose just 7.9%. In fact, that rebound was largely egged on by stocks with the richest price-to-earnings valuations, the lowest dividend yields, the most short interest. It’s a picture of a reflexive bounce following rabid selling, and not of longer-term investors stepping in to buy quality stocks.

It helps consumers that Treasury yields have plummeted this year, which keeps mortgage rates and borrowing costs down. Gas prices have pulled back despite the summer driving season, and crude oil is down 24% from its April high. Individual investors are soured toward stocks, and have whittled down their holdings, and dismal job growth has increased the cry for monetary support when the Federal Reserve meets later this month.
 
Meanwhile, money managers have suffered through a cranky summer. According to JPMorgan strategist Thomas Lee, the crop of funds lagging their benchmarks by at least 2.5 percentage points has ballooned from 24% a month ago to about 47%, the worst underperformance since 1998. Those trailing their benchmarks by at least five percentage points have also jumped, from 10% to 25%. Whether this is good news will depend on your perspective: Performance chasing by money managers who can’t afford to miss any rallies might help lift the indexes. But is it buying borne of true conviction, and will rebounding stocks really signal a mending economy?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average absorbed its fifth loss in six weeks, and gave up 44, or 0.4%, to 11,240. The Nasdaq Composite Index eked out a half-point gain to reach 2480, while the Russell 2000 fell 8 points, or 1.2%, to 683. Gold notched its eighth gain in nine weeks, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 2% (Source: Barrons Online).

Last week, Foreign Stocks and Bonds increased. U.S. Stocks decreased. During the last 12 months, BONDS outperformed STOCKS.

Returns through 9-2-2011	1-week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Years	5-Years	10-Years
Bonds- BarCap  Aggregate Index	.8	6.7	5.9	7.4	6.7	5.8
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500	-.5	-10.0	2.2	-6.3	-5.4	0.0
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries	2.2	-10.3	1.1	– 6.0	-4.7	2.1

Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.

  

The FED and other Central Banks have not yet followed through with coordinated efforts to support their economies and restore confidence. Meanwhile, last week’s economic reports indicate the economy has slowed more than economists expected. These reports coupled with last week’s drop in the stock market, will diminish American’s confidence even further. And, as I reported in The Weekly Commentary weekly during each of the past three weeks, a continued crisis in confidence will probably result in further economic slowdown, and maybe a full-fledged recession. I believe the probability of a recession has grown dramatically.

The stock markets have already dropped in anticipation of the economic slowdown. There is a possibility the forecasted downturn is now fully factored into stock prices. If true, this would not be the time to sell. On the other hand, the economic downturn could be long-lasting and severe. It is very difficult to predict its severity. There is no exact, 100% sure-fire way to time recessions or markets. Due to the lack of clarity in my crystal ball, I recommend the following, depending upon which category fits your unique circumstance:

1. Aggressive investors, moderately aggressive investors, and investors who do not intend to touch their investments for 10 years or longer – continue to hold the current allocation of core investments, and wait to gather more information, and carefully watch central bank activities especially from FED Chairman Bernanke later this week.
 
2. Investors who need to withdraw from the investment portfolio – “park” any amounts you expect to withdraw within the next 5 years in a short/intermediate term bond fund.

3. Conservative, moderately conservative, preservation minded investors and investors who with start withdrawing from their portfolio in 5 to 10 years– reduce exposure of the more volatile stock and stock mutual fund holdings in your portfolio.

(Bloomberg/Getty Images)

The “hand-off” in football is the action where a quarterback, usually lacking the ability to carry the ball across the goal line, places the football into the hands of teammate with greater ability. Bernanke came up with the hand-off this week. I think, in the long run, this is a positive. And, Bernanke did forcefully point out that the Fed has done about all it can do and that the forces of Congress and the White House need to step up to the plate with credible actions. It was as close to finger pointing as a Fed Chairman can do. Basically, he said the Fed has done what it can do with as easy a monetary policy as is possible and prudent.

Just in case Congress and the White House did not understand that they had just been handed the football, Bernanke continued with this: “most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank.”

One problem with that odd shaped football: even the frequently practiced hand-off can result in a fumble.

“To reach a port, we must sail – sail, not tie at anchor – sail, not drift.”

–Franklin D. Roosevelt

In a speech in Cape Town, South Africa, on 7 June, 1966, Robert F Kennedy said:
“There is a Chinese curse which says, ‘May he live in interesting times’. Like it or not, we live in interesting times…”

And, he was right on target. More proof is last week’s events – an earthquake and a hurricane all in the same week. The probability of this occurring in Pennsylvania is estimated to equal 1 in 1,500,000. And, this is on top of the Black Swan events I have been writing about since the first edition of The Weekly Commentary in July 2007.

Join us for Celebrity Bartender Night at Apollo Grill!

I would like to ask every one of you to come out and support Valley National Financial Advisors at the Apollo Grill on Thursday, September 15^th for our Celebrity Bartender event!  Laurie Siebert, host of “Your Financial Choices” will join me in taking over the bartending duties from 5-7 PM to support the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society.  VNFA has organized a team to participate in the 2011 “Light The Night” Walk in support of our colleague and friend, Donna Young, who has been fighting Non-Hodgkins Follicular Lymphoma since 2009.  Donna has been with Valley National Financial Advisors in 1989 and we are incredibly proud to support her and LLS with this event!