As the Egyptian military confronted protesters in the streets of Cairo, investors had to confront volatility again. So much for recent assumptions that investors had been inoculated against risk. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was on the brink of reclaiming 1300 for the first time since September 2008—until the Mideast turmoil sparked a 1.8% drop Friday, pushing the index down to 1276, the second down week in a row. The Dow, meanwhile, kept flirting with the 12,000 mark, only to drop 1.4% Friday, closing at 11,823 and notching its first weekly loss after eight weeks of gains. The industrial average hasn’t closed north of 13,000 since June 2008. Securities linked to the Middle East violence shuddered even more violently. The cost of insuring Egyptian government debt rose 25% last week. The Market Vectors Egypt Index, which trades in the U.S., tumbled 3.5% Friday. In the flight to safety, Treasuries and the dollar both rallied—although news that U.S. gross domestic product had risen an annualized 3.2% in fourth-quarter 2010 drove the yield on the 30-year bond to a nine-month high. Meanwhile, gold prices jumped nearly 2% Friday, their biggest one-day rise in three months. “Markets have come a long way in a short period of time,” Dan Veru, chief investment officer at Palisade Capital Management. “But the geopolitical risks are a caveat, and could change the view.” Indeed, Friday’s shudder dashed many investors’ hopes of revisiting previous milestones. “Investors are hungry for success with their portfolios, and want to at least get back to the levels of 2008,” says Kimberly Foss, president of Empyrion Wealth Management in Roseville, Calif. “I think there’s still a lot of cash building on the sidelines.” In fact, while some of that money has begun to slowly trickle into the market, fund flows into equities have only recently turned positive. This despite generally constructive quarterly corporate-profit statements. According to Bespoke Investment Group, 70% of companies that have reported fourth-quarter results have beaten their revenue estimates, a remarkably high number. Even financials, which haven’t fared as well as other sectors in the big rally off the March 2009 lows, are beating revenue estimates by that same 70%. “We’ve managed to proceed without the biggest participant in the S&P 500 not doing much,” says Palisade’s Veru. ”It’s amazing we’ve gotten the kind of gains that we have.” (Source: Barrons Online)
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The Numbers
During last week, Foreign Stocks and Bonds advanced and U.S. Stocks declined. Bonds were unchanged. During the last 12 months, U.S. STOCKS outperformed BONDS.
Returns through 1-28-2011 |
1-week |
Y-T-D |
1-Year |
3-Years |
5-Years |
10-Years |
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index |
.4 |
0.1 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500 |
-.5 |
1.6 |
20.1 |
.3 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries |
.4 |
2.2 |
11.7 |
– 5.6 |
– .9 |
1.4 |
Abbreviated Version This Week
(Photo of Jets truck on the PA Turnpike enroute to Pittsburgh – courtesy of Erika Petrozelli)
I succumbed to the temptation of attending the Steelers-Jets game in Pittsburgh. On Saturday morning, I will be departing from my warm nest in Bethlehem to trek over the river and through the woods to the more frigid side of the state, intending to stay overnight at my brother’s house outside of Indiana (Pa). On Sunday, my wife Jo Anne, my daughter Erika and her husband Matt Petrozelli, and his father and mother will descend upon the three rivers to watch one of the coldest games in NFL history. There are 2 Steelers fans and 4 Jets fans in our mini-group so there will be some happier than others by the time you read this on Monday.
UPDATE: Steelers fans left happier than Jets fans…
Motivational Quote of the Week
“How people treat you is their karma; how you react is yours.”
-Wayne Dyer
The Markets This Week
After two months of steady gains, stocks ran out of steam last week.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed at 1,283.35, down on the holiday-shortened week. It was the first weekly decline for the index in eight weeks. On Jan. 19, it fell by more than 1%, something it hadn’t done for 37 trading days, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The index retraced some of its losses as the week wore on.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to eke out its eighth consecutive week of gains, climbing 0.72% to 11,871.84. General Electric (ticker: GE) was a standout among the blue chips, jumping 7% on Friday on strong fourth-quarter earnings report. The conglomerate’s profits surged 51%, helped by improved operating margins. Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Capital Equity Research, was heartened to see strength in GE’s infrastructure-related sales.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, for its part, was down 2.4%, to 2,689.54. A big drag on the index was Apple (AAPL), which fell 6% on the week. The technology behemoth released stellar earnings, but that was overshadowed by the announcement earlier in the week that its famed chief, Steve Jobs, is taking a medical leave.
It was also a tough week for smaller stocks, which had enjoyed nice gains until recently. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-capitalization stocks, was down 4.26%, only its second weekly decline since mid-November. And the S&P 400 Midcap Index fell 1.8% on the week. Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, predicts there “will be an unwinding of the small-cap trade, especially this year as we see bond yields go up.”
Yields did edge up as Treasuries sold off, in part because of some encouraging news about the economy. For example, new claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 37,000 to around 404,000, seasonally adjusted. The 10-year Treasury was yielding 3.413% at the end of the week, up from 3.334% a week earlier.
FINANCIAL STOCKS HAD A NOTABLY mixed time of it. Morgan Stanley (MS) saw its shares rise about 3.6%, thanks to strong fourth-quarter results. But Goldman Sachs (GS) sold off about 5% on disappointing earnings. Fourth-quarter profits fell by 52%, reflecting weaker trading results. It was also a tough week for Bank of America (BAC); its shares slid about 6% amid continued mortgage write-downs. The banking giant posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.2 billion.
Belski maintains that this week’s up-and-down performance by the financials illustrates how “financials have taken over for tech as the quintessential stock-pickers sector.” In other words, expect banks to bumpy for a while.
But the market as a whole may still be intact. In general, Knapp says, “There is nothing to dissuade me from an overall optimistic view.” Even bulls sometimes need a breather
(Source: Barrons Online).
The Numbers
Returns through 1-21-2011 | 1-week | Y-T-D | 1-Year | 3-Years | 5-Years | 10-Years |
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index | -.3 | -.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.7 |
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500 | -.8 | 2.1 | 17.3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries | 0.0 | 1.8 | 7.1 | – 4.4 | – .4 | 1.3 |
Source: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Assumes dividends are not reinvested.
The Weekly Commentary’s Track Record
Our readers have benefited from The Weekly Commentary’s insights, predictions, and cautions since July, 2007. Our goal is to keep you informed. We obtain information by spending substantial time each week reading and analyzing the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Barrons, Fortune magazine, Investment News, S&P Market Insights, Reuters news feed, Google Alerts, and a number of financial blogs. We use our educational background and decades of experience to sort through irrelevant “noise” and then draw our own insightful conclusions.
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Weekly Focus: “Pay Yourself First”
Many consumers have heard that term but fail to implement it as a strategy in their own personal finance. A great way to save for a financial goal (or retirement) is to set up a routine, automatic periodic investment program into a solid growth and income mutual fund. It’s less complicated than its name. Just specify the amount per month (say $100) that you think you can afford. The amount can be withdrawn automatically from your checking account. And, try to save at least 25% of annual bonuses or windfalls by writing a check and depositing using a tear off coupon-type deposit slip you receive after the first routine deposit. This investment style, sometimes referred to as “dollar cost averaging” is a good approach to investing because you end up purchasing more shares when the price of the fund is low. It’s a proven technique, but remember, dollar cost averaging does not assure a profit or protect again loss in declining markets.
Motivational Quote of the Week
“There are two kinds of failures: Those who thought and never did, and those who did and never thought.”
– Laurence Peter