Last
week’s Economic reports indicated the U.S. jobs market continue to improve,
retail sales were OK, inventories rose, and inflation continues to be
subdued.
Most
of the negative economic news came from outside of the US: China exports dropped 18.1% from a year
earlier level, as well as, fears over a Russian takeover of Crimea and
interference in Ukraine amplified stock market volatility, lowered consumer
confidence, and sent European stock prices dramatically lower.
One
negative economic report last week indicated productivity came in at a lower
level than expected in the 4th Quarter, 2013. I expect this to be a temporary
situation.
Last
week’s Economic reports indicated the U.S. jobs market continue to improve,
retail sales were OK, inventories rose, and inflation continues to be
subdued.
Most
of the negative economic news came from outside of the US: China exports dropped 18.1% from a year
earlier level, as well as, fears over a Russian takeover of Crimea and
interference in Ukraine amplified stock market volatility, lowered consumer
confidence, and sent European stock prices dramatically lower.
One
negative economic report last week indicated productivity came in at a lower
level than expected in the 4th Quarter, 2013. I expect this to be a temporary
situation.
Last week, Bonds increased but U.S. Stocks and Foreign Stocks declined.
Returns through 3-14-2014
1-week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Years
5-Years
10-Years
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index
.6
2.0
.6
3.7
5.1
4.5
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500
-1.9
.1
20.2
14.9
22.1
7.3
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries
3.1
-2.5
9.8
4.0
13.7
3.7
Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.
“Your
Financial Choices” The
show airs on WDIY Wednesday evenings, from 6-7 p.m. The show is hosted by
Valley National’s Laurie Siebert CPA, CFP®, AEP®. This week Laurie will discuss: “Financial Planning – Putting
your Tax Return to Work”
Laurie will take your calls on these topics and
other inquiries this week. WDIY is broadcast on FM 88.1 for reception in most
of the Lehigh Valley; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.9 in the Easton and
Phillipsburg area; and, it is broadcast on FM 93.7 in the Fogelsville and Macungie
area – or listen to it online from anywhere on the internet. For more
information, including how to listen to the show online, check the show’s
website www.yourfinancialchoices.com
and visit www.wdiy.org.
I take great pleasure in announcing Laurie Siebert
CPA, CFP, AEP has been named as one of the “2014 Women of Influence” by Lehigh
Valley Business magazine. The women were
honored for their influence in their companies, industries, and
communities. An independent panel of
judges named the winners based on their career accomplishments, leadership,
vision, community service and mentoring experience.
Laurie is Senior Vice President of Valley National
Financial Advisors and hosts a popular radio show “Your Financial
Choices”. This award by Lehigh Valley
Business is a tribute to Laurie’s diligent efforts to help educate the public
on important decisions in their financial lives.
Vladimir Putin likes to say that there’s nothing
exceptional about the United States. And last week it was hard to argue with
him, at least when it comes to the stock market.
U.S. markets finally succumbed to the malaise
affecting the rest of the world, as the Dow tumbled for five straight days and
the S&P slipped into the red for the year.
Putin, of
course, is largely to blame. Russian troops have massed at the border of
Ukraine, and Crimean residents are set to vote on Sunday about whether to
secede. From there, the region would likely join Mother Russia. European and
American diplomats have threatened sanctions.
“The markets are hostage to diplomacy, and
diplomacy is not working right now,” says Joseph Quinlan, chief market
strategist for U.S. Trust. “There was no breakthrough between the U.S. and
Russia going into the weekend.”
Other factors sapped investors’ enthusiasm. China’s
exports, factory production, and retail sales were weaker than expected.
European industrial production and a reading of consumer confidence in the U.S.
also proved disappointing.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
dropped 2.4%, or 387.05 points, to 16,065.67. The Standard & Poor’s 500
index fell 36.91 points, to 1841.13. The Nasdaq Composite index slipped 2.1%,
or 90.83 points, to 4245.40.
Fears of a trade-sapping Cold War with Russia may be
the biggest factor holding stocks at bay for now. But even if the conflict
dissipates, the U.S. economy and corporate performance are doing little to
light a fire under the market. Analysts’ earnings-growth forecasts for the
first quarter have fallen below 1%, down from almost 5% at the start of the
year. For the full year, earnings are now set to grow 7.7%, compared with
expectations of more than 11% in October, according to S&P Capital IQ.
“Stocks are not overvalued, but they need
validation from the economy,” says Mark Luschini, chief investment
strategist at Janney Capital Management.
That sets up
poorly for the coming week. The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and
could decide to change the way it communicates its intentions to the market. So
far, the Federal Open Market Committee has used a “quantitative”
benchmark to determine when to raise interest rates, saying it will begin
considering a raise only after the unemployment rate has fallen below 6.5% and
expected inflation remains below 2.5%. But unemployment is now at 6.7%, and
some Fed officials have begun discussing offering more “qualitative”
guidance not connected to specific numbers. There’s clearly a risk in doing
that—the Bank of England attempted to offer more qualitative guidance last
month and was “somewhat ridiculed” for offering an unclear forecast,
Luschini says. This will be Janet Yellen’s first meeting at the helm, and it
looks like it won’t be easy. (Barrons Online).
While
it is exceptionally difficult to forecast stock markets dips and bounces, I
believe it pays to keep an eye on the reality of the current situation. When I assess the points below, I feel confident that investors owning the
stock of great companies will be rewarded in the future:
The stock market
appears to have resumed its positive up-trend.
Most
of the time the U.S. stock market looks to 3 factors (call them the “pillars”
that support the stock market) to support its upward trend – let’s grade each
of the pillars.
CONSUMER SPENDING: I grade this factor a C- (below average
THE FED AND ITS POLICIES: I continue to grade this factor an A+ (extremely favorable) because the
FED cannot do much more than it is doing to support the stock market and asset
prices.
BUSINESS PROFITABILITY: I continue to grade this factor an A (very favorable).
Last
week’s Economic reports indicate the economy is heating up as well as the
temperature. This is evidence of the
anticipated manufacturing ramp-up to produce the goods consumers may buy when
the weather improves. Last week, good
reports came from employment/jobs, from manufacturing activity, and from
personal income levels.
One
negative economic report last week indicated productivity came in at a lower
level than expected in the 4th Quarter, 2013. I expect this to be a temporary
situation.
Last week, U.S. Stocks increased but Foreign Stocks and Bonds declined.
Returns through 3-7-2014
1-week
Y-T-D
1-Year
3-Years
5-Years
10-Years
Bonds- BarCap Aggregate Index
-.6
1.4
-.1
3.7
4.9
4.4
US Stocks-Standard & Poor’s 500
1.1
2.0
24.2
15.2
25.1
7.2
Foreign Stocks- MS EAFE Developed Countries
-.4
.6
14.6
3.5
15.8
3.6
Source:
Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Three, five and ten year returns are annualized excluding dividends.
