Category Archives: The “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

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THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth were very strong.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by mid year.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate increased to 6.1% in April, from 6% in March.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 4.5% in April. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The economy expanded at a 6.4% annualized pace in Q1. At the current rate, U.S. GDP will return to pre-COVID levels by midyear.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With over half of S&P constituents having reported Q1 earnings, sales and earnings growth have come in at 9% and 45%, respectively, representing extremely strong results.

EMPLOYMENT

POSITIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 2.6% in March. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Retail sales grew nearly 10%, month-over-month, in March.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 Just about 10% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q1 earnings, however, the early results are encouraging, as sales and earnings growth has come in at 7% and 30%, respectively.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 2.6% in March. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years. President Biden is also considering a significant capital gains tax increase.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Retail sales grew nearly 10%, month-over-month, in March.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 Just about 10% of S&P 500 constituents have reported Q1 earnings, however, the early results are encouraging, as sales and earnings growth has come in at 7% and 30%, respectively.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 Inflation was 2.6% in March. The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has generally been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Consumer confidence has increased meaningfully over the last month as vaccine distribution has accelerated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 earnings are expected to be up greater than 20%, year-over-year. Earnings season begins in a couple of weeks.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total more than $2 trillion over eight years.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Consumer confidence has increased meaningfully over the last month as vaccine distribution has accelerated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q1 earnings are expected to be up greater than 20%, year-over-year. Earnings season begins in a couple of weeks.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6% in March, from 6.2% in February

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden recently unveiled a stimulus package directed towards infrastructure that would total >$2T over eight years.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 With multiple vaccines in distribution and highly accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in place, 2021 may be one of the strongest economic years on record.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The FOMC forecasts the U.S. economy will grow by 6.5% in 2021, while the unemployment rate will retreat to 4.5% by year’s end.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q4 profits grew 3.8% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%. Earnings in 2021 are set to look strong as they lap Q2-Q3 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in February from 6.4% in January. Most of the added jobs last month were concentrated in the Leisure & Travel sector. Total employment remains 9.5 million jobs below the pre-pandemic peak.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion fiscal bill last week. The U.S. economy has received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.