Category Archives: The “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

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THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 The FOMC forecasts the U.S. economy will grow by 6.5% in 2021, while the unemployment rate will retreat to 4.5% by year’s end.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q4 profits grew 3.8% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%. Earnings in 2021 are set to look strong as they lap Q2-Q3 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in February from 6.4% in January. Most of the added jobs last month were concentrated in the Leisure & Travel sector. Total employment remains 9.5 million jobs below the pre-pandemic peak.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion fiscal bill last week. The U.S. economy has received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 Retail sales increased by over 5% in January, far higher than the 1% economist expectations. January was also the first month since October in which retail sales were positive month-over- month.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q4 profits grew 3.8% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%. Earnings in 2021 are set to look strong as they lap Q2-Q3 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

NEUTRAL

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in February from 6.4% in January. Most of the added jobs last month were concentrated in the Leisure & Travel sector. Total employment remains 9.5 million jobs below the pre-pandemic peak.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden signed a $1.9 trillion fiscal bill last week. The U.S. economy has received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 Retail sales increased by over 5% in January, far higher than the 1% economist expectations. January was also the first month since October in which retail sales were positive month-over- month.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q4 profits grew 3.8% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%. Earnings in 2021 are set to look strong as they lap Q2-Q3 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in February from 6.4% in January. Most of the added jobs last month were concentrated in the Leisure & Travel sector. Total employment remains 9.5 million jobs below the pre-pandemic peak.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed through the Senate over the weekend; the House will vote this week. If the bill passes fully through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

POSITIVE

 Retail sales increased by more than 5% in January, far higher than the 1% economist expectations. January was also the first month since October 2020 in which retail sales were positive month-over-month.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 S&P 500 Q4 profits grew 3.8% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%. Earnings in 2021 are set to look strong as they lap Q2-Q3 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December 2020. Labor weakness remains in sectors such as Leisure and Travel; such sectors stand to benefit as vaccine distribution accelerates.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 Discussions on President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package are ongoing. If the bill passes through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing 12 months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019 levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a third fiscal package likely, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 Retail sales increased by over 5% in January, far higher than the 1% economist expectations. January was also the first month since October in which retail sales were positive month-over- month.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

POSITIVE

 With >80% of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q4 earnings, profit growth is coming in at >3% year-over-year, well more than analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%. Earnings in 2021 are set to look strong as they lap Q2-Q3 2020.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December. Labor weakness remains in sectors such as Leisure and Travel; such sectors stand to benefit as vaccine distribution accelerates.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 Discussions on President Biden’s a $1.9 trillion stimulus package are ongoing. If the bill passes through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing twelve months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 U.S. GDP increased at a 4% annualized rate in Q4. For the full-year 2020, the U.S. economy contracted by 3.5%, its worst performance since 1946. GDP is expected to improve meaningfully in 2021 as the American population gets vaccinated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

 With 3/4 of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q4 earnings, profit growth is coming in at 2.8% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December. Labor weakness remains in sectors such as Leisure and Travel; such sectors stand to benefit as vaccine distribution accelerates.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 Discussions on President Biden’s a $1.9 trillion stimulus package are ongoing. If the bill passes through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing 12 months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve continues to indicate that the monetary environment will remain very accomodative for the foreseeable future.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 U.S. GDP increased at a 4% annualized rate in Q4. For the full-year 2020, the U.S. economy contracted by 3.5%, its worst performance since 1946. GDP is expected to improve meaningfully in 2021 as the American population gets vaccinated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

 With ~60% of S&P 500 constituents having reported Q4 earnings, profit growth is coming in at 1.6% year-over-year, well in excess of analyst expectations, which figured that earnings would fall by 7%.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate declined to 6.3% in January from 6.7% in December. Labor weakness remains in sectors such as Leisure and Travel; such sectors stand to benefit as vaccine distribution accelerates.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 Discussions on President Biden’s a $1.9 trillion stimulus package are ongoing. If the bill passes through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing twelve months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 U.S. GDP increased at a 4% annualized rate in Q4. For the full-year 2020, the U.S. economy contracted by 3.5%, its worst performance since 1946. GDP is expected to improve meaningfully in 2021 as the American population gets vaccinated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

 Q4 earnings season is underway. Consensus estimates were that S&P 500 earnings would be down 7% year-over-year, however, companies are beating expectations – oftentimes by a wide margin – thus far.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate was stagnant in December at 6.7%. This is the first month since April in which the unemployment rate did not improve.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package last week. If the bill passes through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing twelve months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 Retail sales declined by 0.7% in December, the third consecutive month during which the metric was negative. Economic activity is expected to remain muted over the next few months, until a meaningful percentage of the population has been vaccinated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

 Dozens of significant companies are reporting Q4 earnings this week. According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline roughly 7%, year-over-year.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate was stagnant in December at 6.7%. This is the first month since April in which the unemployment rate did not improve.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package last week. If the bill passes through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing twelve months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April 2020 nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on by

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association.

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

NEUTRAL

 Retail sales declined by 0.7% in December, the third consecutive month during which the metric was negative. Economic activity is expected to remain muted over the next few months, until a meaningful percentage of the population has been vaccinated.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

NEUTRAL

 Q4 earnings season kicked off last week as several major banks reported results. According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline by roughly 7%, year-over-year.

EMPLOYMENT

NEGATIVE

 The unemployment rate was stagnant in December at 6.7%. This is the first month since April in which the unemployment rate did not improve.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

 The Fed plans to allow inflation to temporarily overshoot its 2% target such that the long-term average is 2%. Inflation has been tame since the Great Financial Crisis, less than 2%.

FISCAL POLICY

POSITIVE

 President Biden unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package last week. Should the bill pass through Congress, the U.S. economy will have received a total of approximately $4 trillion in stimulus over the trailing eleven months.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

 The Federal Reserve supported asset markets with unprecedented speed and magnitude in response to COVID-19.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

NEUTRAL

 There are few, if any, looming geopolitical risks that could upset the economic recovery.

ECONOMIC RISKS

NEUTRAL

 Although economic activity mostly remains below 2019’s levels, improvement has occurred across nearly every measure since the April nadir. With multiple vaccines in distribution, a second fiscal package in place, and interest rates low, 2021 is positioning to be a strong economic year.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.