The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on June 9, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

THE NUMBERS
Sources: Index Returns: Morningstar Workstation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Three, five and ten year returns are annualized. Interest Rates: Federal Reserve, Mortgage Bankers Association

MARKET HEAT MAP
The health of the economy is a key driver of long-term returns in the stock market. Below, we assess the key economic conditions that we believe are of particular importance to investors.

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	Social distancing has slackened in recent weeks as states reopen, Americans appear increasingly comfortable with travel and large gatherings occur via demonstrations. The extent to which these events will impact the spread of COVID-19, and thereby economic activity, will be discerned over the coming weeks.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	2.5 million jobs were added in April, in large part driven by the return of furloughed workers. The figure represents the greatest monthly increase in jobs since at least 1939, and a stark divergence from economic consensus which expected further unemployment. Nonetheless, the jobless rate remains historically high at 13.3%.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	Western opposition to China’s National Security Law, legislation that reduces Hong Kong’s autonomy, has amplified the discord already present between the US and China as a result of COVID-19. In addition, demonstrations across the US evidence considerable domestic unrest.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The “Heat Map” is a subjective analysis based upon metrics that VNFA’s investment committee believes are important to financial markets and the economy. The “Heat Map” is designed for informational purposes only and is not intended for use as a basis for investment decisions.

The Number & “Heat Map”

Posted on June 2, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY

CONSUMER HEALTH

VERY NEGATIVE

The consumer was the bedrock of the US economy through much of the previous decade. However, our Consumer Health grade remains VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-

19.

CORPORATE EARNINGS

VERY NEGATIVE

Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts.

However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.

EMPLOYMENT

VERY NEGATIVE

April’s nonfarm payrolls report was historically ugly. We expect continued stress in the labor market due to the suppression of economic activity necessary to combat the spread of COVID- 19.

INFLATION

POSITIVE

The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust

stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely

in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.

FISCAL POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of

the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business

closures and unemployment.

MONETARY POLICY

VERY POSITIVE

In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency

rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.

GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE.

However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic will ultimately prove to be transitory in nature.

ECONOMIC RISKS

VERY NEGATIVE

The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on May 26, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer was the bedrock of the US economy through much of the previous decade. However, our Consumer Health grade remains VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
MPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	April’s non-farm payrolls report was historically ugly. We expect continued stress in the labor market due to the suppression of economic activity necessary to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic will ultimately prove to be transitory in nature.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on May 19, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer was the bedrock of the US economy through much of the previous decade. However, our Consumer Health grade remains VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	April’s non-farm payrolls report was historically ugly. We expect continued stress in the labor market due to the suppression of economic activity necessary to combat the spread of COVID- 19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE.However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic will ultimately prove to be transitory in nature.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on May 12, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer was the bedrock of the US economy through much of the previous decade. However, our Consumer Health grade remains VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	April’s non-farm payrolls report was historically ugly. We expect continued stress in the labor market due to the suppression of economic activity necessary to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives. However, we will be watching closely in the intermediate term for second and third order effects leading to a return of inflationary pressure.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic will ultimately prove to be transitory in nature.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on May 5, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer was the bedrock of the US economy through much of the previous decade. However, our Consumer Health grade remains VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	We expect continued job losses due to the suppression of economic activity necessary to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The US Government has passed a series of fiscal measures to combat the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The largest of these measures, known as the CARES Act, provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by business closures and unemployment.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic will ultimately prove to be transitory in nature.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) may occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on April 28, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion. However, we have further reduced our grade to VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	We expect continued job losses due to the suppression of economic activity necessary to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The CARES Act provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is by far the largest fiscal stimulus package ever passed, and we anticipate the possibility of additional support once we emerge on the other side of the “curve”.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic remains a near-term issue at this time.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) will occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on April 21, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion. However, we have further reduced our grade to VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	We expect continued job losses due to the suspension of economic activity in the services industry to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The CARES Act provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is by far the largest fiscal stimulus package ever passed, and we anticipate the possibility of additional support once we emerge on the other side of the curve”.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic remains a near-term issue at this time.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) will occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on April 14, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion, and remains in a strong position. However, we have further reduced our grade to VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	VERY NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	We have downgraded our employment grade another level as we expect the next few weeks will reveal significant job losses due to the suspension of economic activity in the services industry to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The CARES Act provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is by far the largest fiscal stimulus package ever passed, and we anticipate the possibility of additional support once we emerge on the other side of the curve.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE.However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic remains a near-term issue at this time.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	The economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be substantial. However, we believe that the eventual economic recovery (which will be aided by historically large economic stimulus) will occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

Posted on April 7, 2020 by The Weekly Commentary

US ECONOMY
CONSUMER HEALTH	VERY NEGATIVE	The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion and remains in a strong position. However, we have further reduced our grade to VERY NEGATIVE as a result of the unprecedented social distancing and quarantining efforts currently being employed to fight the spread of COVID-19.
CORPORATE EARNINGS	NEGATIVE	Coming into the year, analysts were expecting mid to single digit earnings growth, but the spread of COVID-19 is likely to have a substantial impact on near-term earnings forecasts. However, earnings could bounce back quickly once the pandemic has run its course.
EMPLOYMENT	VERY NEGATIVE	We have downgraded our employment grade another level as we expect the next few weeks will reveal significant job losses due to the suspension of economic activity in the services industry to combat the spread of COVID-19.
INFLATION	POSITIVE	Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The deflationary environment created by COVID-19 should provide additional room for robust stimulus from both fiscal and monetary policy initiatives.
FISCAL POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	The CARES Act provides approximately $2.2 trillion of support for businesses and families that are impacted by the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is by far the largest fiscal stimulus package ever passed, and we anticipate the possibility of additional support once we emerge on the other side of the “curve”.
MONETARY POLICY	VERY POSITIVE	In response to the threat of COVID-19, the Federal Reserve has implemented two emergency rate cuts and has moved its target interest rate back to zero. Additionally, it has announced its intention to conduct further asset purchases to support markets. We believe that the Fed is doing all it can to support the economy and markets.
GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	With COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic, our geopolitical risks rating is VERY NEGATIVE. However, we think it is important for investors to disentangle the public health concerns over the near-term from the expectations for markets over the long-term. The pandemic remains a near-term issue at this time.
ECONOMIC RISKS	VERY NEGATIVE	As discussed in our commentary, COVID-19 represents a real threat to economic activity globally. However, we do expect that the eventual economic recovery will occur more swiftly than from previous economic shocks.

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The Weekly Commentary

Observations of the current state of the stock and bond markets

Category Archives: The “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Number & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”

The Numbers & “Heat Map”