CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A despite a recent decline in retail sales numbers. US consumer confidence remains high, but we will be watching this metric closely over the next couple of weeks and throughout earnings season. The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion.

FED POLICIES

A-

The Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by an additional 25 bps following last week. This was the third cut this year, but Chairman Jerome Powell signaled to markets that we this may be the last adjustment to the Fed’s policy target until there is a meaningful shift in the economic data (either poitive or negative).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

As was largely expected by markets, corporate earnings growth has been weak thus far in Q3 as a result of the global slowdown and trade policy uncertainty. Throughout earnings season, we will be paying closer attention to management commentary and updates to forward guidance, which are likely to have a bigger impact on stock prices.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added a healthy 128,000 new jobs in October. Furthermore, there were upward revisions to data from the September and August reports in addition to evidence of strong wage growth. Considering the slew of negative sentiment leading up to its release, this was one of the more uplifting release in recent memory.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Despite the US & China being close to a “Phase One” agreement, we are keeping our “international risks” metric at an elevated level of 7 for now. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A despite a recent decline in retail sales numbers. US consumer confidence remains high, but we will be watching this metric closely over the next couple of weeks and throughout earnings season. The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion.

FED POLICIES

A-

The Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by an additional 25 bps following last week. This was the third cut this year, but Chairman Jerome Powell signaled to markets that we this may be the last adjustment to the Fed’s policy target until there is a meaningful shift in the economic data (either positive or negative).

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

As was largely expected by markets, corporate earnings growth has been weak thus far in Q3 as a result of the global slowdown and trade policy uncertainty. Throughout earnings season, we will be paying closer attention to management commentary and updates to forward guidance, which are likely to have a bigger impact on stock prices.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added a healthy 128,000 new jobs in October. Furthermore, there were upward revisions to data from the September and August reports in addition to evidence of strong wage growth. Considering the slew of negative sentiment leading up to its release, this was one of the more uplifting release in recent memory.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Despite the US & China being close to a “Phase One” agreement, we are keeping our “international risks” metric at an elevated level of 7 for now. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A despite a recent decline in retail sales numbers. US consumer confidence remains high, but we will be watching this metric closely over the next couple of weeks and throughout earnings season. The consumer has been the bedrock of the US economy through much of the current expansion.

FED POLICIES

A-

Our Fed Policies grade has been increased to A- after the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following its September meeting. The Fed will be meeting again this week and markets are expecting an additional rate cut, which would be the third cut this year.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

As was largely expected by markets, corporate earnings growth has been weak thus far in Q3 as a result of the global slowdown and trade policy uncertainty. Throughout earnings season, we will be paying closer attention to management commentary and updates to forward guidance, which are likely to have a bigger impact on stock prices.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 136,000 new jobs in September, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

A-

Our Fed Policies grade has been increased to A- after the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following its most recent meeting. This marks the second time the Fed has cut interest rates in the past few months, but Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that he does not expect “a more extensive series of rate cuts” moving forward.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

Q3 corporate earnings season begins soon, with many experts predicting negative growth for the quarter as a result of more sluggish global economic growth. The strength of corporate profits in Q3 will provide investors with a glimpse into how the recent slowdown in manufacturing may have impacted US companies.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 136,000 new jobs in September, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

A-

Our Fed Policies grade has been increased to A- after the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following its most recent meeting. This marks the second time the Fed has cut interest rates in the past few months, but Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that he does not expect “a more extensive series of rate cuts” moving forward.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

With most S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, the EPS growth rate for the second quarter is close to zero. Despite the weak growth rate, almost 75% of companies have beaten consensus estimates this quarter.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in August, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

A-

Our Fed Policies grade has been increased to A- after the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following its most recent meeting. This marks the second time the Fed has cut interest rates in the past few months, but Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that he does not expect “a more extensive series of rate cuts” moving forward.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

With most S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, the EPS growth rate for the second quarter is close to zero. Despite the weak growth rate, almost 75% of companies have beaten consensus estimates this quarter.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in August, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Recent inflationary data has increased slightly, but inflation remains benign at this time, which bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

B+

Our Fed Policies grade remains a B+ after the Federal Reserve opted to cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following last month’s meeting. The cut was widely anticipated by markets, and if history is any representation, it is unlikely to be the last.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

With most S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, the EPS growth rate for the second quarter is close to zero. Despite the weak growth rate, almost 75% of companies have beaten consensus estimates this quarter.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in August, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Despite a tight labor market, we continue to see no signs of an increase in inflation. This bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

B+

Our Fed Policies grade remains a B+ after the Federal Reserve opted to cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following last month’s meeting. The cut was widely anticipated by markets, and if history is any representation, it is unlikely to be the last.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

With most S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, the EPS growth rate for the second quarter is close to zero. Despite the weak growth rate, almost 75% of companies have beaten consensus estimates this quarter.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in August, below the consensus expectations of analysts. However, despite the lower than expected job creation, there was evidence of an acceleration of wage growth. The labor market continues to look quite healthy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Despite a tight labor market, we continue to see no signs of an increase in inflation. This bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of US consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

B+

Our Fed Policies grade remains a B+ after the Federal Reserve opted to cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following last month’s meeting. The cut was widely anticipated by markets, and if history is any representation, it is unlikely to be the last.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

With most S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, the EPS growth rate for the second quarter is close to zero. Despite the weak growth rate, almost 75% of companies have beaten consensus estimates this quarter.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added 164,000 new jobs in July, right on target with consensus expectations. July’s report also showed that the size of the labor force (defined as those who are either working or actively seeking employment) grew to its highest level ever. The labor market remains one of the strongest components of the US economy.

INFLATION

A

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. Despite a tight labor market, we continue to see no signs of an increase in inflation. This bodes well for the extension of the economic cycle.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the US/China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

Our consumer spending grade remains an A. Surveys of U.S. consumers continue to indicate that the consumer is in a strong position, and recent GDP data provided further evidence of healthy consumer spending.

FED POLICIES

B+

Our Fed Policies grade remains a B+ after the Federal Reserve opted to cut its interest rate target by 25 bps following last month’s meeting. The cut was widely anticipated by markets, and if history is any representation, it is unlikely to be the last.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B-

With most S&P 500 companies having reported Q2 earnings, the EPS growth rate for the second quarter is close to zero. Despite the weak growth rate, almost 75% of companies have beaten consensus estimates this quarter.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The U.S. economy added 164,000 new jobs in July, right on target with consensus expectations. July’s report also showed that the size of the labor force (defined as those who are either working or actively seeking employment) grew to its highest level ever. The labor market remains one of the strongest components of the U.S. economy.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but as the economic cycle continues to mature, this metric will deserve our ongoing attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

7

Following a re-escalation of the U.S./China trade dispute, we have raised our “international risks” metric back to a 7. Other key areas of focus for markets include the ongoing Brexit negotiations, rising economic nationalism around the globe, and escalating tensions in the Middle East.