CONSUMER SPENDING

A

We have downgraded our consumer spending grade to A from A+ following weaker than expected December retail sales data and some declines in consumer confidence surveys. However, monthly data can be volatile and we still believe that the US consumer is in a healthy position.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented four interest rate hikes during 2018, and while the rate hike cycle appears to be on pause for now, rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added just 20,000 new jobs in February, which was far less than expected. This was the weakest number since 2017, but job gains from both December and January were revised upwards. Despite the weak report, the labor market remains one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

We have downgraded our consumer spending grade to A from A+ following weaker than expected December retail sales data and some declines in consumer confidence surveys. However, monthly data can be volatile and we still believe that the US consumer is in a healthy position.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented four interest rate hikes during 2018, and while the rate hike cycle appears to be on pause for now, rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A

The US economy added just 20,000 new jobs in February, which was far less than expected. This was the weakest number since 2017, but job gains from both December and January were revised upwards. Despite the weak report, the labor market remains one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

We have downgraded our consumer spending grade to A from A+ following weaker than expected December retail sales data and some declines in consumer confidence surveys. However, monthly data can be volatile and we still believe that the US consumer is in a healthy position.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented four interest rate hikes during 2018, and while the rate hike cycle appears to be on pause for now, rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 304,000 new jobs in January, soundly beating estimates for the second straight month. The labor market is one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

We have downgraded our consumer spending grade to A from A+ following weaker than expected December retail sales data and some declines in consumer confidence surveys. However, monthly data can be volatile and we still believe that the US consumer is in a healthy position.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented four interest rate hikes during 2018, and while the rate hike cycle appears to be on pause for now, rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 304,000 new jobs in January, soundly beating estimates for the second straight month. The labor market is one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A

We have downgraded our consumer spending grade to A from A+ following weaker than expected December retail sales data and some declines in consumer confidence surveys. However, monthly data can be volatile and we still believe that the US consumer is in a healthy position.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented its fourth interest rate hike of the year in December. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 304,000 new jobs in January, soundly beating estimates for the second straight month. The labor market is one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A+

Consumer confidence was hindered somewhat by the market volatility experienced during December. We are awaiting further data from the US Department of Commerce (which was delayed due to the government shutdown) in order to make an assessment regarding whether this merits a new grade.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented its fourth interest rate hike of the year in December. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 304,000 new jobs in January, soundly beating estimates for the second straight month. The labor market is one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A+

Consumer confidence was hindered somewhat by the market volatility experienced during December. We are awaiting further data from the US Department of Commerce (which has been delayed due to the government shutdown) in order to make an assessment regarding whether this merits a new grade.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented its fourth interest rate hike of the year in December. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 304,000 new jobs in January, soundly beating estimates for the second straight month. The labor market is one of the strongest components of the economic backdrop at this time.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A+

Consumer confidence was hindered somewhat by the market volatility experienced during December. We are awaiting further data from the US Depertment of Commerce (which has been delayed due to the government shutdown) in order to make an assessment regarding whether this merits a new grade.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented its fourth interest rate hike of the year in December. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, blowing estimates out of the water. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as a result of new workers entering the labor force. Growth in the size of the labor force is a sign of a healthy labor market.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A+

Consumer confidence was hindered somewhat by the market volatility experienced during December. We are awaiting further data from the US Depertment of Commerce (which has been delayed due to the government shutdown) in order to make an assessment regarding whether this merits a new grade.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented its fourth interest rate hike of the year in December. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, blowing estimates out of the water. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as a result of new workers entering the labor force. Growth in the size of the labor force is a sign of a healthy labor market.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.

CONSUMER SPENDING

A+

Consumer confidence is near all time highs with recent tax reform providing further support. The holiday shopping season was one of the strongest on record.

FED POLICIES

C-

The Federal Reserve implemented its fourth interest rate hike of the year in December. Rising interest rates tend to reduce economic growth potential and can lead to repricing of income producing assets.

BUSINESS PROFITABILITY

B+

Corporate earnings remain strong, but we anticipate earnings growth will taper off in 2019. We are also beginning to see a higher number of companies reducing forward earnings guidance, a sign that earnings growth may have reached its peak in 2018.

EMPLOYMENT

A+

The US economy added 312,000 new jobs in December, blowing estimates out of the water. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% as a result of new workers entering the labor force. Growth in the size of the labor force is a sign of a healthy labor market.

INFLATION

B

Inflation is often a sign of “tightening” in the economy, and can be a signal that growth is peaking. The inflation rate remains benign at this time, but we see the potential for an increase moving forward. This metric deserves our attention.

OTHER CONCERNS

INTERNATIONAL RISKS

5

The above ratings assume no international crisis. On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest level of crisis, we rate these international risks collectively as a 5. These risks deserve our ongoing attention.